857
FXUS61 KBGM 260611
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
211 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS GRADUALLY BREAKING UP. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
EVENTHOUGH WE WILL HAVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION A
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ACT
TO KEEP AROUND CLOUDS AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL NY. SOME
CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN NE PA WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH TONIGHT WITH
VALUES ONLY IN THE MID 30'S ON AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY LOOK TO
MAKE A SLOW CLIMB TO 50 OR SO. ANY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SHIFT BY
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR CLEARING AND QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO
THE 20'S FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN A
COUPLE OF MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY WEDNESDAY TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO
INTERACT ONE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SECOND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH CLOUDS INCREASING
HERE. SOME UNCERTAINITY STILL EXISTS ON HOW IT ORGANIZES INTO A
SINGLE LOW AND TRACKS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR AN IMPACTFUL STRONG LOW
TRACKING OVER US OR UP THE EAST COAST. FOR NOW, FEATURE THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN CENTERED FOR LATER THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DO SHOW A BRIEF MIX OR EVEN A
PARTIAL WET SNOW EVENT FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THAT WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND WHAT DYNAMICAL COOLING PROCESSES
CAN TAKE PLACE. ALSO, DEPENDENT ON TRACK WILL BE HOW STRONG THE
WINDS END UP ALONG WITH QPF. WE SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE TO HANDLE A
WIDESPREAD INCH OR TWO. ALTHOUGH, IF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCH
AMOUNTS WERE TO BECOME REALIZED THEN THE FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
POTENTIAL WOULD INCREASE. FOR NOW, STAYED CLOSE TO OUR NBM GUIDANCE
ON SOME OF THE DETAILS HERE BUT A BIT WARMER WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. LOWS LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID 30'S WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO 50 WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LOW SHOULD START EXITING THE REGION FOR TRICK OR TREAT FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, COOL AND RAW CONDITIONS WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS POSSIBLY MIXED WET SNOW DO REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXTREMELY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
HANDLING THE EVOLVING WEATHER VERY WELL. LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DECK
IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY. IN THIS CLEARING, FOG IS DEVELOPING,
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SURFACE WINDS ARE CALM, TEMPERATURES
ARE FALLING TO THE DEWPOINT, AND THE GROUND IS WET FROM RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE PAST COULD OF DAYS. GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEARING
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWS NO FOG DEVELOPING. BECAUSE THE CURRENT
WEATHER IS SO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GUIDANCE, THE TAFS WERE
WRITTEN BASED ON THE CURRENT WEATHER TRENDS AND NOT GUIDANCE.
ITH AND SYR HAVE ALREADY SEEN FOG AND ARE AT LIFR AND IFR
RESPECTIVELY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT ITH WHERE NW WINDS SHOULD PUSH MOISTURE
FROM CAYUGA LAKE UP TO THE TERMINAL, KEEPING FOG AROUND THROUGH
THE MORNING. SYR SHOULD SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG OFF AND ON
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNIRNG HOURS, WHERE IT SHOULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT UNTIL THE MID MORNING. BGM WILL BOUNCE OUT OF MVFR
AND VFR CLOUD DECKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THE CLOUD DECK
CLEARS, TEMPS WILL DROP AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LET FOG DEVELOP
WITH IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. ELM SHOULD ALSO
SEE FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS SET IN AFTER THE CLOUD DECK CLEARS
AND TEMPS FALL TO THE DEWPOINT.
RME AND AVP ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...JTC
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