220
FXUS61 KBGM 260738
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
338 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY, ALLOWING LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MIDWEEK LIKELY RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO BREAK UP
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE MUCH SOONER THAN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NY. ONCE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS WELL AS COOL TEMPERATURES WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
LATE OCTOBER. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT
FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION. FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AS UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST APPEARS TO BACK TRACK INTO THE
REGION. DESPITE THIS CONDITIONS REMAIN CALM AND DRY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BEFORE TRACKING UP THE EASTERN COAST BY MIDWEEK. MODELS WORK THIS
FEATURE INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. SOME UNCERTAINITY STILL
EXISTS ON HOW IT ORGANIZES AND WHETHER OR NOT IT PHASES WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN COAST EARLIER THIS WEEK. RECENT
SOLUTIONS KEEPS THESE TWO FEATURES SEPARATE, INDICATING LOWER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS HAVE THESE FEATURES PHASING
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO OUR NBM GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT TO FOLLOW.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
EXTREMELY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT
HANDLING THE EVOLVING WEATHER VERY WELL. LAKE EFFECT CLOUD DECK
IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES AND MOHAWK VALLEY. IN THIS CLEARING, FOG IS DEVELOPING,
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE SURFACE WINDS ARE CALM, TEMPERATURES
ARE FALLING TO THE DEWPOINT, AND THE GROUND IS WET FROM RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE PAST COULD OF DAYS. GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEARING
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWS NO FOG DEVELOPING. BECAUSE THE CURRENT
WEATHER IS SO MUCH DIFFERENT FROM GUIDANCE, THE TAFS WERE
WRITTEN BASED ON THE CURRENT WEATHER TRENDS AND NOT GUIDANCE.
ITH AND SYR HAVE ALREADY SEEN FOG AND ARE AT LIFR AND IFR
RESPECTIVELY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY AT ITH WHERE NW WINDS SHOULD PUSH MOISTURE
FROM CAYUGA LAKE UP TO THE TERMINAL, KEEPING FOG AROUND THROUGH
THE MORNING. SYR SHOULD SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS WITH FOG OFF AND ON
UNTIL THE EARLY MORNIRNG HOURS, WHERE IT SHOULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT UNTIL THE MID MORNING. BGM WILL BOUNCE OUT OF MVFR
AND VFR CLOUD DECKS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THE CLOUD DECK
CLEARS, TEMPS WILL DROP AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LET FOG DEVELOP
WITH IFR CONDITIONS INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. ELM SHOULD ALSO
SEE FOG AND IFR CONDITIONS SET IN AFTER THE CLOUD DECK CLEARS
AND TEMPS FALL TO THE DEWPOINT.
RME AND AVP ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC
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