553
FXUS61 KBGM 261041
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY, ALLOWING LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MIDWEEK LIKELY RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD RAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY WITH DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE REGION. THIS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO BREAK UP
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE MUCH SOONER THAN EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NY. ONCE CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS WELL AS COOL TEMPERATURES WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR
LATE OCTOBER. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH
WIDESPREAD FROST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH SLIGHT
FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION. FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AS UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COAST APPEARS TO BACK TRACK INTO THE
REGION. DESPITE THIS CONDITIONS REMAIN CALM AND DRY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES AGAIN ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PLUNGE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
BEFORE TRACKING UP THE EASTERN COAST BY MIDWEEK. MODELS WORK THIS
FEATURE INTO OUR AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. SOME UNCERTAINITY STILL
EXISTS ON HOW IT ORGANIZES AND WHETHER OR NOT IT PHASES WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN COAST EARLIER THIS WEEK. RECENT
SOLUTIONS KEEPS THESE TWO FEATURES SEPARATE, INDICATING LOWER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS HAVE THESE FEATURES PHASING
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY STAYED CLOSE TO OUR NBM GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LAKE EFFECT TO FOLLOW.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOG WITH IFR AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS WILL LAST AT ELM AND ITH
INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOLLOWING. THE
REST OF OUR TERMINALS, EXCEPT ELM, ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ELM SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS CALM WINDS AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
RME AND AVP ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC
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