004
FXUS61 KBGM 270552
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY BUT ALSO FAIRLY COOL. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE IN AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT, WHICH IS THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FALL SEASON. WHILE THE
GROWING SEASON IS OVER, FROST IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION, PATCHY
FOG/FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS IN WEST-
CENTRAL NY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TO START THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL NEARLY BE IDENTICAL TO TODAY AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S AND LOWS FALL BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A WEAK
COASTAL LOW FAR OFF THE COAST WHILE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL
US. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT AS THE LATTER
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD, RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND THE COOLER AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT. UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW, TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING. IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO MOVE
IN QUICKER THAT FORECASTED, THEN WINTRY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW, THIS FORECAST KEEPS
THE MAIN P-TYPE AS RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW IN FAR
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AS THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE OFF THE
ATLANTIC BUT COULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY WHAT IS CURRENTLY
HURRICANE MELISSA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS MAY
INTERACT, BUT ADDED MOISTURE WOULD HELP INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS,
WHICH WOULD BE WELCOMED. WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO
LIFT THE SYSTEM OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE
FOR HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWED NBM GUIDANCE WHICH
DOES KEEP CHANCES FAIRLY HIGH INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DO SHOW DRIER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THOUGH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN US FOR PART OF THE WEEKEND AND SUPPORT SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST. WITH ELM DROPPING BELOW THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE
WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE, LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED, GENERALLY AFTER
06Z. WHILE THERE WAS MORE SUNSHINE IN PLACE TODAY LEADING TO
DRIER CONDITIONS, SOME PATCHY FOG AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS IS
POSSIBLE AT ITH AND BGM AS WELL, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH.
AFTER THE MORNING FOG CLEARS, IT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE NE AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF TO OUR NORTH.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...DK/ES
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