577
FXUS61 KBGM 271731
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE IN AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
300 AM UPDATE:
WITH CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE, THIS
MORNING WILL START OFF QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR
THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS A FEW UPPER TEENS IN
SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
SOMEWHAT TODAY, BUT WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR (HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S). MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. THEN VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER (NEAR-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR), WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
300 AM UPDATE:
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR ONE MORE DAY. HIGHER
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT A DEEPENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. PWATS WILL ALSO BE AROUND 1.00" OR HIGHER,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-81. MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS
IN A RAINFALL DEFICIT WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS PRESENT ACROSS
SOME AREAS. AS A RESULT, THIS SOAKING RAINFALL SHOULD ACTUALLY
BE BENEFICIAL. THAT BEING SAID, WITH VEGETATION STARTING TO
BECOME DORMANT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
SOME LOCALIZED URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A BRIEF WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
ONEIDA COUNTY AND SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
CATSKILLS, BUT OTHERWISE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A RAIN EVENT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
300 AM UPDATE:
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM FROM
THURSDAY AND MULTIPLE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH.
WHILE THE NBM (NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS) ADVERTISES LIKELY POPS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD, IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE (IF
NOT LIKELY), THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MAINLY DRY PERIODS AS WELL.
IT IS JUST TOO FAR OUT TO PINPOINT WHEN AND WHERE THOSE DRIER
PERIODS MAY BE. EITHER WAY, IT WILL REMAIN COOL AND MAINLY
CLOUDY DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE VALLEY FOG THAT COULD BRING POTENTIAL VLIFR
CONDITIONS TO ELM AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY FOG SHOULD
LIFT BETWEEN 14-15Z TOMORROW AND THEN VFR THEREAFTER.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...ES/MPK
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