296
FXUS61 KBGM 280532
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
132 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN MOVES IN AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
THE REGION WILL SEE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO FREEZING FOG/LOW STRATUS
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT HAVE AS
MUCH OF AN INVERSION AS SEEN FOR LAST NIGHT BUT HREF PROBABILITIES
SUPPORT ADDING SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST. PLUS, CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR, SO THE END RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE SAME.
IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARM CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW
30S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT,
SOME FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND KEEP RAIN
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SKIES WILL START OUT SUNNY
BUT CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE LOW
DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S.
OVERNIGHT, SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THIS SYSTEM
THEN TURNS NORTHWARD. UNDER THE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM MOVING IN LINE WITH WHAT IS
CURRENTLY HURRICANE MELISSA. THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
SEPARATED AND STAY ORGANIZED. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DRY SLOT THAT
PUSHES INTO NEPA AND PARTS OF NY LATE THURSDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES INTO THE AREA
AND WRAPAROUND MOISTURE SUPPORTS SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND LOW ONLY IN THE 40S.
PWATS ARE ONLY 1.25" OR LESS WITH HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER EASTERN NY. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY SO
ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT GENERALLY,
THIS WILL BE A SYNOPTIC EVENT WITH STEADY RAIN OVER A LONG PERIOD OF
TIME. DESPITE VEGETATION BECOMING DORMANT, DROUGHT CONDITIONS
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION. CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ARE LOW AS THE
CURRENT ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL.
IF THERE IS ONE AREA TO MONITOR, IT WOULD LIKELY BE THE CATSKILLS
WHERE SOME MODELS HAVE HIGHER PWATS AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD FRIDAY
BUT WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS PRESENT THROUGH AT LEAST
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS MAY LINGER LONGER OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NY
EARLY SATURDAY. OTHERWISE, SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS AND WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH. FOLLOWING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, HEIGHTS FALL AND COOLER AIR DRIFTS SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHEAST LEADING TO A SLIGHT COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BIT OF A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO FOG FORMATION, EVEN AT KELM.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR IFR-OR-
WORSE FOG/FREEZING FOG AT KELM, SO MAINTAINED THIS IN THE 06Z
SET OF TAFS THERE. ALSO MAINTAINED FOG AT KSYR DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION FAVORING SOME ADDED MOISTURE FROM ONEIDA LAKE. REMOVED
FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR KBGM AND KRME DUE TO SOMEWHAT LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG, BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
IT OUT AT THOSE TERMINALS EITHER. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT
LEAST THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY).
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...BJG/BTL
LONG TERM...BJG/BTL
AVIATION...BJG
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