220
FXUS61 KBGM 280721
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN MOVES IN AND BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD BRINGS CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN.
ENE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.
WE BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL LEAD TO
ACTIVE WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND TRACK WESTWARD, SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
HIGH TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
THIS LOW WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND WILL COMBINE
WITH THE LOW OVER THE SE US. THIS WILL HELP PULL THE LOW NORTH
AND SET THE SURFACE LOW ON A PATH FOR THE NE US. TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED CANADIAN AIR
OVERHEAD.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THE 2 UPPER LOW CENTERS WILL MERGE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL SET THE LOW ON A PATH NORTH THAT
WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE REGION.
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE UP WESTERN VIRGINIA
INTO EASTERN PA AND HEAD INTO EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS PATH BRINGS RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION STARTING IN
THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE LOW MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH ISOBARS
STACKING UP AND A STRONG LLJ PICKING UP ALONG THE NE PORTION OF
THE LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING EASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15MPH GUSTING UP
TO 25MPH DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY, ABOUT 1-1.25 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY NIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD, AND DEPENDING ON ITS LOCATION, A DRY SLOT MAY MOVE IN
AND BRING LIGHTER RAIN TO THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE SO WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
THE WEST AND EAST OF THE DRY SLOT.
ON FRIDAY, THE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS NE TREK INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO WNW, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA AND KICKING OFF LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY MORNING, WITH 10-20MPH SUSTAINED
GUSTING UP TO 30MPH EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL
BARELY MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S, AND WITH THE STRONG WINDS, WILL
FEEL LIKE THEY ARE IN THE UPPER 30S.
THE TRICK OR TREATING FORECAST DOES NOT LOOK GREAT, WITH
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, STRONG WINDS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, BRINGING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL, ONLY TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST. LAKE EFFECT MAY
DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT GUIDANCE DIVERGES LEADING INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS POPPING UP
INCLUDING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH OR HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. NBM GUIDANCE WAS USED HERE BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY,
WHICH LEANS TOWARDS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING IN WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BIT OF A TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO FOG FORMATION, EVEN AT KELM.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR IFR-OR-
WORSE FOG/FREEZING FOG AT KELM, SO MAINTAINED THIS IN THE 06Z
SET OF TAFS THERE. ALSO MAINTAINED FOG AT KSYR DUE TO THE WIND
DIRECTION FAVORING SOME ADDED MOISTURE FROM ONEIDA LAKE. REMOVED
FOG FROM THE FORECAST FOR KBGM AND KRME DUE TO SOMEWHAT LESS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG, BUT STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
IT OUT AT THOSE TERMINALS EITHER. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS (AT
LEAST THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY).
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJG
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