381
FXUS61 KBGM 281801
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
201 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY WINDS THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A
COASTAL LOW APPROACHES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH AN INVERTED
SURFACE RIDGE DROPPING INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS A WEAK 500MB CYCLONIC LOW CENTER, BUT
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL MAKE FOR MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THIS FEATURE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST, DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
TO FORM ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE RIVERS AND LAKE, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF, IT
SHOULD END UP BEING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING AND AFTER THE COLD START
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOW/MID-50S...WHICH IS RIGHT ON
AVERAGE FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASE AND PERIODS OF RAIN
DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE A COLD
RAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S. 850MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST ABOVE 0C...LIKELY BETWEEN ABOUT +1 TO
+3C OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY DAYBREAK WILL BE UP TO A THIRD OF
AN INCH OR SO SOUTH AND WEST OF BINGHAMTON, WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
PERIODS OF COLD RAIN CONTINUE ALL DAY THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS AS FAR EXACT LOW TRACK...AS THE MID LEVEL 700MB LOW MAY
REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE CWA...NEAR LAKE ERIE. HOWEVER, THIS 700MB
LOW THEN LOOKS TO SLIDE EAST CLOSE TO, OR JUST NW OF THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE 700MB LOW WILL DETERMINE
IF/WHERE ANY DRY SLOT DEVELOPS. OVERALL, ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN
AREA LIKELY TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO FRIDAY ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW DEEPENING DOWN TO AROUND 980MB BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE STATE OF MAINE. FOR
OUR AREA, THIS AGAIN WILL MEAN PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S MUCH OF THE TIME. BREEZY
EAST WINDS THURSDAY GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHIFT WEST-NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY AND INCREASE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-40 MPH AREA EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TRENDS WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE IF WIND GUST MAY ULTIMATELY REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS; 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -1C. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE CONFINE FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NY HEADING
INTO FRIDAY EVENING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 40S.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM LOOK TO RANGE FROM 1-2
INCHES OVER THE REGION.
LAKE EFFECT RAIN AND WET SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL EVEN LOWER TO AROUND -5C. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE. AGAIN, MOST OF
THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD BE FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTH INTO THE
REST OF CENTRAL NY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING APPEARS TO
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST US HEADING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS (RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW AT TIMES)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
BY SUNDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY TRY TO ENCROACH
INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH. OVERALL, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS A GREAT DEAL
OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST NBM/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BRINGS LIKELY POPS FOR MORE
SHOWERS MONDAY, MONDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, SOME
OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE LATEST 12Z GFS) BRINGS
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER ON MONDAY...WITH A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF
RAIN, NOT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE 12Z CMC MODEL IS ON
THE FASTER SIDE, BUT WEAKER WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK'S WEATHER
SYSTEM...AND THE 00Z ECMWF NEVER PHASES THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM JETS. THIS LEADS TO A DRIER SOLUTION OVERALL. THEREFORE, WITH
ALL THE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY, CONTINUED TO USE THE NBM/ENSEMBLE
DATA FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY WITH LOWS
IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ALL TERMINALS THIS PERIOD EXCEPT
ELM. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER ONE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, SO VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WITH CONDITIONS FORECASTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, LIFR
RESTRICTIONS WERE ADDED TO BEGIN BY 10Z AND NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL
AROUND 15Z. ONCE THE FOG CLEARS, IT WILL BE VFR ONCE AGAIN.
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY AT A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION, SO
GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KTS WERE ADDED TO BGM AND AVP. OTHERWISE,
EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AND CALM OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR; CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT NY
TERMINALS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BTL
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