932
FXUS61 KBGM 291053
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
653 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS PICK
UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
OUR WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. IT WILL PRETTY
MUCH BE A RINSE AND REPEAT WEATHER DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIVING A SURFACE LOW TO OUR EAST IS
CENTERED OVERHEAD AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THIS LOW WILL PHASE WITH A DEEP AND STRONGER
CLOSED LOW THAT HAS DUG INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TONIGHT. THIS PHASING WILL HELP PULL THE COMBINED LOW TO THE
NORTH AS THE JET STREAM ROTATES AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW AND
MOVES UP THE EAST SIDE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
THE TN VALLEY WILL ALSO BEGIN ITS TREK TO THE NNE ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. STRATIFORM RAIN WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE A BEELINE TO OUR
CWA. ALONG WITH THE RAIN ON THURSDAY, SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS
OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 25MPH ARE EXPECTED STARTING IN THE
MORNING AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING. THEY SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE 1-1.5
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. FARTHER NORTH,
0.5-1IN OF RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING
WINDS TO LIGHTEN UP AND RAIN TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
SHOWERY AS A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE SOUTH.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
BY FRIDAY MORNING WE WILL BE IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL INTRODUCE A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE AND WE WILL SEE
WINDS SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO WNW. TO GO ALONG WITH THIS SHIFT,
ISOBARS WILL TIGHTEN UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20MPH GUSTING
UP TO 35MPH WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY
OVER ELEVATED AND OPEN SPACES. WINDS REMAIN ACTIVE BUT A LITTLE
LIGHTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SUSTAINED
12-18MPH GUSTING TO 30MPH POSSIBLE. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
HOW THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS AND TRACKS AS IF IT
DEEPENS A LITTLE MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND SHIFT, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE PRETTY COOL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH MOST PLACES REMAINING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WRAP AROUND PRECIP FROM THE DEPARTING LOW
WILL BE ENHANCED BY COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
PRECIP WILL SWITCH TO LAKE EFFECT BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE
FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY SEEING SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR
MOST, WITH LOW 40S IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND NORTHERN FINGER
LAKES AND LOW 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
THE TRICK OR TREAT FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GLOOMY FOR THOSE
PLANNING ON PARTAKING IN THE FESTIVITIES. STRONG WINDS WILL
CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ONE THING CERTAIN ABOUT THE WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD IS THAT IT
IS VERY UNCERTAIN. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE EXTREMELY VARIED ENTERING
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SOME GUIDANCE DIGS IT
DEEP INTO THE GULF COAST AND CUTS IT OFF FROM THE FLOW, WHILE
OTHERS DIG IT TO THE SE US AND PUSHES IT OFF SHORE, AND STILL
OTHERS KEEP IT MUCH WEAKER AND PROGRESSIVE, PUSHING IT THROUGH
THE SE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WITHOUT DEVELOPING ANYTHING.
WHILE THIS FEATURE IS DEVELOPING, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MON. THIS SHORTWAVE COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA OR, IF IT IS ABLE TO PHASE WITH
THE DEEP LOW OVER THE SE US, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN
EVENT. THERE IS WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SAY WITH ANY SKILL
WHICH WAY THE FORECAST WILL TREND. BECAUSE OF THIS, NBM GUIDANCE
WAS USED WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MON AND TUES.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST
TERMINALS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KELM THIS MORNING WITH
VALLEY FOG RESULTING IN VLIFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL 14Z OR 15Z WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR AFTER THAT.
BY THIS EVENING, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE CEILINGS ALONG
WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH
KAVP SEEING RESTRICTIONS FIRST AND KRME SEEING RESTRICTIONS
LAST. IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AT KBGM AND KELM.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY,
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR; CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT THE
NY TERMINALS WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...BJG
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