524
FXUS61 KBGM 300612
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
212 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THEN PERSISTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
RAIN PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL NY ON THURSDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL
EXPECTED. DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE TAKES AWAY ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THIS HEAVY RAINFALL, HOWEVER, LOCALIZED
URBAN FLOODING ISSUES COULD ARISE DUE TO CLOGGED DRAINS AND
CULVERTS FROM LEAF DEBRIS. ALONG WITH THE RAIN ON THURSDAY,
SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS OF 10-15MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH PICK UP
IN THE MORNING AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP
AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE 1-2 INCHES
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS. FARTHER NORTH, 0.75-1 INCH
OF RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NE ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING
WE WILL BE IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW WHICH WILL INTRODUCE A
WIND DIRECTION CHANGE AND WE WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT FROM EASTERLY
TO WNW. TO GO ALONG WITH THIS SHIFT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HOW THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEVELOPS AND TRACKS. IF THE LOW DEEPENS A LITTLE MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, WINDS WILL BE STRONGER AND A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING.
COOL NW FLOW WILL SET UP AND REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS WRAP AROUND PRECIP FROM THE
DEPARTING LOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS PRECIP WILL SWITCH TO ALL LAKE EFFECT BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY
SEEING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL
LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST, WITH LOW 40S IN THE WYOMING VALLEY
AND NORTHERN FINGER LAKES AND LOW 30S ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY AND CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW FLAKES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE TRICK OR TREAT FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GLOOMY FOR THOSE
PLANNING ON PARTAKING IN THE FESTIVITIES. STRONG WINDS WILL
CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, COOL
WESTERLY FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE EXTREMELY VARIED ENTERING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS THEY ARE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF
ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. SOME GUIDANCE DIGS IT DEEP INTO THE GULF COAST
AND CUTS IT OFF FROM THE FLOW, WHILE OTHERS DIG IT TO THE SE US
AND PUSHES IT OFF SHORE, AND STILL OTHERS KEEP IT MUCH WEAKER
AND PROGRESSIVE, PUSHING IT THROUGH THE SE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
WITHOUT DEVELOPING ANYTHING.
WHILE THIS FEATURE IS DEVELOPING, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA OR, IF IT
IS ABLE TO PHASE WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER THE SE US, WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER SOAKING RAIN EVENT. THERE IS WAY TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
SAY WITH ANY SKILL WHICH WAY THE FORECAST WILL TREND. BECAUSE
OF THIS, NBM GUIDANCE WAS USED WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL
SPREAD NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO START, BUT CEILINGS AND VISBY SHOULD
QUICKLY FALL TO MVFR THEN IFR BY 09-12Z.
AVP SHOULD HOLD OFF ON IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE POCONOS AND INTO THE WYOMING
VALLEY ARE DOWNSLOPING INTO THE TERMINAL, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
CEILINGS ABOVE IFR. IFR SHOULD FILL IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
RME SHOULD ALSO HOLD OFF ON IFR OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS
DROPPING VSBY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO DOWNSLOPE INTO THE TERMINAL.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVING THE RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA, WITH THE CENTER BEING OVER THE REGION
AROUND 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH EASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20-25KTS EXPECTED. LLWS WILL BE A FACTOR AT MOST
TERMINALS AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW CENTER. 40-50KT
WIND SHEAR AT 120-140 DEGREES UP TO FL020 IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AVP AND BGM SEEING IMPACTS IN THE MORNING TO
MID-AFTERNOON, ELM AND ITH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND
SYR AND RME FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
MONDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...JTC
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