953
FXUS61 KBGM 300731
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, BUT UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THEN PERSISTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
330 AM UPDATE:
AS EXPECTED, RAIN HAS SURGED NORTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
EVENTUALLY RIGHT THROUGH NORTHEAST PA AND CENTRAL NY BY LATER
TODAY/THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE A MUCH-NEEDED SOAKING/STEADY
RAINFALL. THERE MAY ALSO BE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO, BUT THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE. RAIN MAY
BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES, BUT DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH MANAGEABLE RAINFALL RATES SHOULD KEEP
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING QUITE LOW. THAT BEING SAID, THERE
COULD BE A FEW LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WHERE DRAINS AND CULVERTS MAY BE BLOCKED
FROM LEAF DEBRIS.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL TODAY, IT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
WINDY AS A STRONG LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50KTS A FEW THOUSAND FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH NOT A CERTAINTY, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE STEADY RAINFALL COULD BRING DOWN SOME OF THESE HIGHER
GUSTS TO THE SURFACE DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UPSLOPE/EAST-FACING HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS OF THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS. HREF PROBABILITIES ON
DESI SHOWS QUITE HIGH PROBABILITIES (80-90+%) IN SEEING
ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS (GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 46 MPH)
ACROSS THOSE AREAS, BUT NBM PROBABILITIES ON DESI POINT TO A
MUCH-DIFFERENT SCENARIO (0% CHANCE OF SEEING ADVISORY-LEVEL
GUSTS). CHANCES ARE THAT THE NBM WIND GUST PROBABILITIES ARE
UNDERDONE, BUT HREF PROBABILITIES MAY BE OVERDONE. AFTER
COORDINATING WITH OUR SURROUNDING WFOS, IT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY WIND ADVISORIES FOR NOW FOR TODAY DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY. THE UPCOMING DAY SHIFT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SHORTER-FUSED WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
ISSUED FOR SOME AREAS IF THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS MATERIALIZE
UPSTREAM. EVEN WITHOUT OFFICIAL ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS, OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-40 MPH LOOK PROBABLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS/HILLTOPS.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
TONIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR THE STEADY RAINFALL TO DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE
SHOWERY IN NATURE (OR PERHAPS EVEN END COMPLETELY FOR THE TWIN
TIERS SOUTHWARD).
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON FRIDAY/HALLOWEEN, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA. AS A
RESULT, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY. WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
WINDS WILL ALSO PICK BACK UP (THIS TIME FROM THE WEST), WITH
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS PERIOD WILL ALSO
NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FUTURE WIND ADVISORIES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
330 AM UPDATE:
WITH A COOL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW (850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -4C),
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY IN CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, BUT NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY PICK UP
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, BUT WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, WHILE MOST OF NORTHEAST PA WILL
REMAIN DRY UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. COOL CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, COOL
WESTERLY FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. THAT
BEING SAID, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
330 AM UPDATE:
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER. THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A TROUGH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH PERHAPS SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS BEHIND IT,
BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE TRENDING DRIER. STUCK WITH THE NBM
FOR NOW FOR POPS DUE TO THERE STILL BEING UNCERTAINTY, BUT ODDS
ARE THAT THESE POPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AND WILL
SPREAD NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS TO START, BUT CEILINGS AND VISBY SHOULD
QUICKLY FALL TO MVFR THEN IFR BY 09-12Z.
AVP SHOULD HOLD OFF ON IFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE POCONOS AND INTO THE WYOMING
VALLEY ARE DOWNSLOPING INTO THE TERMINAL, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
CEILINGS ABOVE IFR. IFR SHOULD FILL IN DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
RME SHOULD ALSO HOLD OFF ON IFR OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS
DROPPING VSBY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS
WINDS HERE WILL ALSO DOWNSLOPE INTO THE TERMINAL.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIVING THE RAIN
MOVES INTO THE AREA, WITH THE CENTER BEING OVER THE REGION
AROUND 06Z.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH EASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20-25KTS EXPECTED. LLWS WILL BE A FACTOR AT MOST
TERMINALS AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT
OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW CENTER. 40-50KT
WIND SHEAR AT 120-140 DEGREES UP TO FL020 IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AVP AND BGM SEEING IMPACTS IN THE MORNING TO
MID-AFTERNOON, ELM AND ITH DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND
SYR AND RME FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...RAIN AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
MONDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC
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