798
FXUS61 KBGM 301836
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
236 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THEN
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT
SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A DRY SLOT IS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL CAUSE STEADY RAINFALL TO TURN TO SHOWERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND EXIT TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE EXITING LOW A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL NY. ALSO, THERE IS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW AND AS THE COLDER AIR PUSHES IN, THIS WILL MAKE A
WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT, SO WINDS WILL START PICKING UP BY MID
MORNING FRIDAY. WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIME
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
FROM MID MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
COOL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WITH T850 NEAR 4C WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY,
MAINLY IN CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES MAY GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
WET SNOWFLAKES TO MIX IN ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY, COOL
WESTERLY FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO KICK OFF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. THAT
BEING SAID, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH LIKELY SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO NE PA. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN MID WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE END OF THE WEEK IS MORE UNCERTAIN. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT
MODELS DISAGREE WITH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AT
THIS TIME. FOR NOW, NBM BRINGS IN LIKELY (60%) POPS THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL NY, BUT IF THE TROUGH DIGS A LITTLE
DEEPER AND TILTS MORE NEGATIVE, COULD SEE THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION SLOW DOWN AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SNEAK
FURTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OUT OF CENTRAL PA AND ACROSS CENTRAL NY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. ALTHOUGH IFR AND MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXACT TIMING AND OCCURRENCES
FOR RESTRICTIONS IS UNCERTAIN WITH LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
LLWS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AT MOST TERMINALS AS A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW CENTER THIS AFTERNOON. 40-50KT WIND SHEAR AT
120-140 DEGREES AROUND FL020 IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...NW WIND SHIFT BRINGS LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS.
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT NY TERMINALS AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO
40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL NY TERMINALS WITH LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...BJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...BJG/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...JTC/MPK
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