373
FXUS61 KBGM 271753
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
INCREASINGLY WINDY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NY, MAINLY WEST OF I-81.
AREAS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY AND REMAINING
WINDY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPS THE
REGION UNDER PREVAILING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION PASSING OVER THE RELATIVELY MILD WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE IS ALREADY SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. EARLY THIS MORNING, THESE BANDS WILL PRIMARILY CLIP THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES, MARKING THE START OF WHAT WILL BECOME A LONG-DURATION
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW EVENT. WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME IN PLACE, THE
MAIN LAKE ONTARIO BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF ONEIDA COUNTY
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE, THE LAKE ERIE BAND WILL BE
THE MORE INFLUENTIAL FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH SNOW LIKELY
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF STEUBEN COUNTY AND POTENTIALLY PUSH INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND AREAS NORTH OF
BINGHAMTON. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE BAND
PERIODICALLY ORGANIZES AND HOLDS TOGETHER.
AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER TODAY, LOW-LEVEL FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS TO WESTERLY BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO EXTEND FARTHER EAST INTO THE REGION, WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY, MAKING FOR A BRISK
THANKSGIVING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. THE RAW NBM WIND GUIDANCE APPEARED TOO LOW, SO WINDS
WERE INCREASED USING A BLEND OF THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE AND CONSALL
TO BETTER CAPTURE THE HIGHER GUST POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STEUBEN COUNTY, WHERE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL NY, ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY. NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY PICK
UP AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW, DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE LAKE-EFFECT
BAND CLIPS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE MAIN LAKE-EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
BEGINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH,
SHIFTING DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL
ALIGN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TRAJECTORIES MORE DIRECTLY ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, ENHANCING LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL.
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO PRIMARY LAKE-EFFECT BANDS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY—ONE ORIGINATING FROM GEORGIAN BAY
AND ANOTHER FROM LAKE HURON. THIS MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WILL PROVIDE
A LONG, UNINTERRUPTED FETCH, ALLOWING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO
EXTEND MUCH FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THAN TYPICAL. THE GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND PUSH INTO PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK, WHILE THE LAKE HURON BAND MAY REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE POCONOS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS, IT
COULD LEAD TO TRAVEL DISRUPTIONS; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO
MODERATE DUE TO BAND PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS
FOR FRIDAY SHOW A LITTLE INSTABILITY THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
SNOW SQUALLS. THE WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
MAY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, AND THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
SATURATED THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, HELPING ANY
ORGANIZED BANDS OR SQUALLS PRODUCE HEAVIER SNOWFALL.
GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO THIS PERIOD, REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT STILL FREQUENTLY REACHING AROUND 40 MPH. THESE GUSTS,
COMBINED WITH HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW, MAY LEAD TO REDUCED
VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY BENEATH THE MORE INTENSE LAKE-EFFECT BANDS.
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK, WITH
EXPECTED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 TO 14 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY,
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE AS THE LAKE-EFFECT BAND
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK,
BRINGING ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REMAIN COOL, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 20S. IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY, TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY UNDER
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS FARTHER NORTH,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING, HELPING
TO END ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL, LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND SOUNDINGS BEGIN
TO DRY OUT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO UPPER 30S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-20S, AND WINDS
GRADUALLY EASING THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION AS WELL AS RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL
NOT BE FAR BEHIND AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
LINGERING LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY
BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BUILD IN AND BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WORK WEEK.
AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS
SHOW A COASTAL SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION BUT ALL DIFFER ON ITS
LOCATION AND TRACK. SOLUTIONS LIKE THE GFS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
HUGGING THE COAST WHICH RESULTS IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND OTHERS SIMILAR TO IT HAVE THE
SYSTEM FURTHER EAST WITH LESS PRECIPITATION. CONDITIONS WOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR MAINLY SNOW THOUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PA
AND THE CATSKILLS WOULD BE IN A SECTOR OF A WINTERY MIX,
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THEN ON WEDNESDAY,
CONDITIONS DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN THOUGH WESTERLY FLOW RETURNS WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE NBM WAS USED FOR POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD BUT GUSTY
WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE ONE OF THE COLDEST. THEN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW WHAT WE NORMALLY SEE DURING THE
BEGINNING OF DECEMBER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS CNY
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT HITTING THE
GROUND AS DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE DRY AIR AND BRIEFLY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. THIS MAY HAPPEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AT
ELM/ITH, BUT CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO A NWERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT,
BRINGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO CNY. A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND IS FORECAST TO SET UP NEAR SYR/RME STARTING IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT THESE TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IN THE BAND PLACEMENT ACROSS
ONONDAGA/ONEIDA/MADISON COUNTIES IN THE MORNING IS PRETTY HIGH,
BUT WITH THE NARROW NATURE OF THESE BANDS AND THEM BEING HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION, THERE IS A CHANCE THE BAND COULD
MISS THE TERMINALS AND HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS. ITH/BGM SHOULD SEEN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WHICH WOULD
DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PERSISTENT
BAND WILL SET UP NEAR THESE TERMINALS SO PERIODIC SHOWERS
ROLLING OVERHEAD IS EXPECTED. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR IN THE TAFS.
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY TODAY.
PEAK GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS, THOUGH SOME GUSTS MAY
OCCASIONALLY BE HIGHER.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR, KRME, AND
KITH. STRONG WIND GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES, OTHERWISE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ009-018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ017-044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ022.
SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...JTC
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