819
FXUS61 KBGM 271822
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
122 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
INCREASINGLY WINDY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NY, MAINLY WEST OF I-81.
AREAS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY AND REMAINING
WINDY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPS THE
REGION UNDER PREVAILING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY, WHERE A STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LAKE ERIE IS
ALREADY PUSHING SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF CENTRAL NY.
THIS BAND WILL PRIMARILY CLIP THE FAR WESTERN ZONES, MARKING
THE START OF WHAT WILL BECOME A LONG- DURATION LAKE- EFFECT SNOW
EVENT. FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERN THROUGH THE DAY,
CONTINUING TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THOSE WESTERN ZONES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEUBEN COUNTY REMAINS UNTIL EARLY
MORNING SATURDAY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS THE TROUGH MATURES AND
MOVES EAST, AND FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY, STRONG LAKE
EFFECT FROM LAKE ONTARIO, THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SNOW TO THE
EASTERN END OF THE LAKE, WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NY. THE MAIN LAKE ONTARIO BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, AND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WILL PROVIDE A
LONG, UNINTERRUPTED FETCH, ALLOWING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO
EXTEND MUCH FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THAN TYPICAL. A STRONG BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT SETTLE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
NY THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNINGS, VALID FROM 1 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY,
CONTINUE FOR ONONDAGA-ONEIDA-MADISON COUNTIES, WHERE 7 TO 16
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, VALID AT THE
SAME TIME AS THE WARNINGS, CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN CAYUGA-
CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO COUNTIES AS WELL.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY, MAKING FOR A
BRISK THANKSGIVING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALL DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY FOR NE PA,
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE
INSTABILITY THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS. THE WIND
PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, AND THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, HELPING ANY ORGANIZED BANDS OR SQUALLS
PRODUCE HEAVIER SNOWFALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES, MAKING
TRAVEL DIFFICULT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY UNDER
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS FARTHER NORTH,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING, HELPING
TO END ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL, LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND SOUNDINGS BEGIN
TO DRY OUT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO UPPER 30S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-20S, AND WINDS
GRADUALLY EASING THROUGH THE DAY.
LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVER IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THOUGH, THERE WON'T BE A QUIET PERIOD
WITH THIS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. PRECIPITATION MAY START AS MAINLY SNOW SINCE IT'S
EXPECTED TO COME IN FROM THE WEST DURING SUNDAY'S EARLY MORNING
HOURS, BUT WILL TRANSITION MORE TO A MIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THE SYSTEM EXITS AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS, SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS
SHOW A COASTAL SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION BUT ALL DIFFER ON ITS
LOCATION AND TRACK. EACH LONG-RANGE MODEL AS FAIRLY DIFFERENT
TIMINGS, TRACK, LOCATION; GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE NBM WAS
USED FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES. WE'LL KEEP MONITORING TRENDS IN
LONG-RANGE MODELS WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF LAKE ERIE CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS CNY
THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT HITTING THE
GROUND AS DRY AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE. SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE DRY AIR AND BRIEFLY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. THIS MAY HAPPEN AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AT
ELM/ITH, BUT CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO A NWERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT,
BRINGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO CNY. A MORE ORGANIZED
BAND IS FORECAST TO SET UP NEAR SYR/RME STARTING IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT THESE TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IN THE BAND PLACEMENT ACROSS
ONONDAGA/ONEIDA/MADISON COUNTIES IN THE MORNING IS PRETTY HIGH,
BUT WITH THE NARROW NATURE OF THESE BANDS AND THEM BEING HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION, THERE IS A CHANCE THE BAND COULD
MISS THE TERMINALS AND HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS. ITH/BGM SHOULD SEEN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WHICH WOULD
DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PERSISTENT
BAND WILL SET UP NEAR THESE TERMINALS SO PERIODIC SHOWERS
ROLLING OVERHEAD IS EXPECTED. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR IN THE TAFS.
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY TODAY.
PEAK GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS, THOUGH SOME GUSTS MAY
OCCASIONALLY BE HIGHER.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR, KRME, AND
KITH. STRONG WIND GUSTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES, OTHERWISE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ009-018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ017-044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ022.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page