034
FXUS61 KBGM 280016
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
716 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDY TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
AREAS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AND REMAINING WINDY. A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPS THE
REGION UNDER PREVAILING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY, WHERE A STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LAKE ERIE IS
ALREADY PUSHING SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF CENTRAL NY.
THIS BAND WILL PRIMARILY CLIP THE FAR WESTERN ZONES, MARKING
THE START OF WHAT WILL BECOME A LONG- DURATION LAKE- EFFECT SNOW
EVENT. FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERN THROUGH THE DAY,
CONTINUING TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THOSE WESTERN ZONES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEUBEN COUNTY REMAINS UNTIL EARLY
MORNING SATURDAY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS THE TROUGH MATURES AND
MOVES EAST, AND FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY, STRONG LAKE
EFFECT FROM LAKE ONTARIO, THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SNOW TO THE
EASTERN END OF THE LAKE, WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NY. THE MAIN LAKE ONTARIO BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, AND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WILL PROVIDE A
LONG, UNINTERRUPTED FETCH, ALLOWING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO
EXTEND MUCH FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THAN TYPICAL. A STRONG BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT SETTLE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
NY THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNINGS, VALID FROM 1 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY,
CONTINUE FOR ONONDAGA-ONEIDA-MADISON COUNTIES, WHERE 7 TO 16
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, VALID AT THE
SAME TIME AS THE WARNINGS, CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN CAYUGA-
CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO COUNTIES AS WELL.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY, MAKING FOR A
BRISK THANKSGIVING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALL DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY FOR NE PA,
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE
INSTABILITY THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS. THE WIND
PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, AND THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, HELPING ANY ORGANIZED BANDS OR SQUALLS
PRODUCE HEAVIER SNOWFALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES, MAKING
TRAVEL DIFFICULT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY UNDER
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS FARTHER NORTH,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY EVENING, HELPING
TO END ANY REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL, LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND SOUNDINGS BEGIN
TO DRY OUT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO UPPER 30S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-20S, AND WINDS
GRADUALLY EASING THROUGH THE DAY.
LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVER IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THOUGH, THERE WON'T BE A QUIET PERIOD
WITH THIS BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. PRECIPITATION MAY START AS MAINLY SNOW SINCE IT'S
EXPECTED TO COME IN FROM THE WEST DURING SUNDAY'S EARLY MORNING
HOURS, BUT WILL TRANSITION MORE TO A MIX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS
THE SYSTEM EXITS AND WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS, SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. MODELS
SHOW A COASTAL SYSTEM EAST OF THE REGION BUT ALL DIFFER ON ITS
LOCATION AND TRACK. EACH LONG-RANGE MODEL AS FAIRLY DIFFERENT
TIMINGS, TRACK, LOCATION; GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE NBM WAS
USED FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES. WE'LL KEEP MONITORING TRENDS IN
LONG-RANGE MODELS WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WHILE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS CNY, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT UNTIL
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SHIFT TO A NWERLY FLOW EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, GENERALLY BETWEEN 09-12Z, BRINGING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS INTO NORTHERN CNY. A MORE ORGANIZED BAND IS FORECAST TO
SET UP NEAR SYR/RME STARTING ROUGHLY AROUND 12-14Z. INTERMITTENT
IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AT THESE TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE
BEFORE BECOMING MORE PREDOMINATE. CONFIDENCE IN THE BAND
PLACEMENT ACROSS ONONDAGA/ONEIDA/MADISON COUNTIES IN THE MORNING
IS PRETTY HIGH, BUT WITH THE NARROW NATURE OF THESE BANDS AND
THEM BEING HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION, THERE IS A CHANCE
THE BAND COULD MISS THE TERMINALS AND THEY WIND UP WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS. ITH/BGM SHOULD SEEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF AND
ON DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A PERSISTENT
BAND WILL SET UP NEAR THESE TERMINALS SO PERIODIC SHOWERS
ROLLING OVERHEAD IS EXPECTED. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE
SHOWERS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR IN THE TAFS. THERE IS ALSO A
LOW CHANCE THAT LAKE EFFECT BANDS REACH OR DROP NEAR AVP, MAINLY
AFTER 18Z WHICH COULD ALSO PRODUCE POTENTIAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH FREQUENT 20-25 KNOT GUSTS. WINDS CAN OCCASIONALLY
GUST AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR, KRME, AND KITH. STRONG WIND GUSTS AT
ALL TERMINALS.
SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES, OTHERWISE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ009-018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ017-044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ022.
SYNOPSIS...DK/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...DK/JTC
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