525
FXUS61 KBGM 280623
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
123 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDY TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
AREAS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AND REMAINING WINDY. A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES KEEPS THE
REGION UNDER PREVAILING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY, WHERE A STRONG LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LAKE ERIE IS
ALREADY PUSHING SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF CENTRAL NY.
THIS BAND WILL PRIMARILY CLIP THE FAR WESTERN ZONES, MARKING
THE START OF WHAT WILL BECOME A LONG- DURATION LAKE- EFFECT SNOW
EVENT. FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE WESTERN THROUGH THE DAY,
CONTINUING TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THOSE WESTERN ZONES. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEUBEN COUNTY REMAINS UNTIL EARLY
MORNING SATURDAY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW. AS THE TROUGH MATURES AND
MOVES EAST, AND FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY, STRONG LAKE
EFFECT FROM LAKE ONTARIO, THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SNOW TO THE
EASTERN END OF THE LAKE, WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO CENTRAL
NY. THE MAIN LAKE ONTARIO BAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
ONEIDA COUNTY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, AND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WILL PROVIDE A
LONG, UNINTERRUPTED FETCH, ALLOWING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO
EXTEND MUCH FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THAN TYPICAL. A STRONG BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT SETTLE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL
NY THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY MORNING SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNINGS, VALID FROM 1 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY,
CONTINUE FOR ONONDAGA-ONEIDA-MADISON COUNTIES, WHERE 7 TO 16
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, VALID AT THE
SAME TIME AS THE WARNINGS, CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN CAYUGA-
CORTLAND-CHENANGO-OTSEGO COUNTIES AS WELL.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY, MAKING FOR A
BRISK THANKSGIVING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALL DEVELOPMENT, MAINLY FOR NE PA,
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE
INSTABILITY THAT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS. THE WIND
PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MAY MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE, AND THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, HELPING ANY ORGANIZED BANDS OR SQUALLS
PRODUCE HEAVIER SNOWFALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES, MAKING
TRAVEL DIFFICULT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR BEHIND A PASSING
WARM FRONT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S. THIS WARM UP WITH LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS TRANSITIONING
TO JUST RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN, WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AND BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND THOUGH AND SWEEPS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S, RAIN TRANSITIONS
BACK TO SNOW. DRIER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KICK OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM UP EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MODELS
ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL NY THAT INCLUDES N. ONEIDA. GIVEN THIS, A FEW
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N. ONEIDA INCLUDING
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT DEVELOPS AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL NY. OTHERWISE, DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN PRESENT UNTIL
TUESDAY. A COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH TRACK AND TIMING DIFFER BETWEEN GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS THE
FASTEST AND WETTEST SOLUTION FOR THE REGION, WHEREAS THE ECMWF
AND CMC ARE SLOWER AND DRIER. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, IF THIS SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST,
THEN WARMER CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PA
AND THE CATSKILLS WHERE RAIN AND/OR A WINTRY MIX WOULD THEN BE
EXPECTED.
FOLLOWING TUESDAY'S SYSTEM, FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ONCE
AGAIN LEADING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY. THIS LOOKS TO BE BRIEF THOUGH AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DIPS SOUTH AND MOVES INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR
THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
MOVES IN. ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT AVP, WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AT
SOME POINT THIS MORNING, THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN
MVFR AND VFR. SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE HAVE ALREADY
MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WILL PASS OVER ITH, ELM, AND BGM THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER BAND DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY DROP
SOUTH AND BRING SNOW TO RME AND SYR PRIOR TO 09Z THIS MORNING.
THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER ONONDAGA AND MADISON
COUNTIES WHICH WOULD PUT SYR RIGHT UNDER IT. UNDER THESE BANDS,
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONE UNCERTAINTY IS
SNOW BAND PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF WHEN THE BANDS WILL MOVE
AROUND. MODELS SHOW ITH BETWEEN BANDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT SNOW
MAY STILL FALL THERE. IN ADDITION, IF BANDS AREN'T DIRECTLY OVER
A TERMINAL, THEN CONDITIONS MAY BE BETTER THAN FORECASTED. SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW EXTENDING DOWN TO AVP BUT
AT THIS TIME, CHANCES WERE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SNOW THERE. IF
SNOW WERE TO REACH THE WYOMING VALLEY, IT WOULD LIKELY BE LIGHT
AND RESULT IN ONLY MINOR RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT SOME GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER. THESE STRONG
WINDS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW EVEN AFTER THE SNOW HAS
STOPPED.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES, OTHERWISE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-
018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ017-
044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ022.
SYNOPSIS...DK/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...BTL/DK
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