532
FXUS61 KBGM 281755
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1255 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY AND REMAINING WINDY. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO
ROTATE, DRAWING COOL AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS.
THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY. THE PRIMARY BAND OF CONCERN WILL BE THE ONE
IMPACTING NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WITH A SECONDARY BAND
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.
AS OF THIS MORNING, WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ERIE HAS SUPPORTED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SNOW BAND, ENHANCED BY A MULTI LAKE CONNECTION
EXTENDING BACK TO LAKE HURON. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE BAND TO
EXTEND FARTHER INTO OUR REGION. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
ROTATE, THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY.
AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY, THE BAND
CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE TWIN TIERS REGION.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN MOIST THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE, WITH SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN
SQUALL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW, CONDITIONS WILL BE WINDY
REGARDLESS, AND A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AND MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY IS KEEPING
THE PRIMARY BAND JUST NORTH OF THE COUNTY. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. ONCE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED, A MULTI-LAKE
CONNECTION FROM GEORGIAN BAY WILL DEVELOP, SUPPORTING HEAVY LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NORTH CENTRAL NY BAND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE REGION, ALLOWING SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH RAIN AND
EVEN CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT TIMES IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE MID 30S, WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY.
THIS CONSIDERATION HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PROJECTED SNOW
TOTALS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES, WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXTENDING SOUTH OF THOSE
AREAS. AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STEUBEN COUNTY, WHERE
THE LAKE ERIE BAND MAY PRODUCE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S, WITH
POCKETS OF UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE LAKE
ERIE BAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT, WHILE THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND
WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING,
CUTTING OFF LAKE CONNECTIVITY AND ALLOWING LINGERING SHOWERS TO
TAPER OFF. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND POCKETS OF UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN WARM AIR BEHIND A PASSING
WARM FRONT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S. THIS WARM UP WITH LEAD TO SNOW SHOWERS TRANSITIONING
TO JUST RAIN AND POTENTIALLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN, WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AND BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAY. A
COLD FRONT IS NOT TOO FAR BEHIND THOUGH AND SWEEPS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S, RAIN TRANSITIONS
BACK TO SNOW. DRIER WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE COMBINED WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
KICK OFF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS
SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARM UP EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MODELS
ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL NY THAT INCLUDES N. ONEIDA. GIVEN THIS, A FEW
INCHES OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS N. ONEIDA INCLUDING
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT DEVELOPS AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MONDAY FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL NY. OTHERWISE, DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN PRESENT UNTIL
TUESDAY. A COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ON TUESDAY,
THOUGH TRACK AND TIMING DIFFER BETWEEN GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS THE
FASTEST AND WETTEST SOLUTION FOR THE REGION, WHEREAS THE ECMWF
AND CMC ARE SLOWER AND DRIER. CONDITIONS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, IF THIS SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST,
THEN WARMER CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PA
AND THE CATSKILLS WHERE RAIN AND/OR A WINTRY MIX WOULD THEN BE
EXPECTED.
FOLLOWING TUESDAY'S SYSTEM, FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ONCE
AGAIN LEADING TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NY. THIS LOOKS TO BE BRIEF THOUGH AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DIPS SOUTH AND MOVES INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CNY TERMINALS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR SYR AND RME.
THE SNOW BAND WILL WOBBLE AROUND THE AREA INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, WITH CONDITIONS BOUNCING FROM MVFR TO IFR TO LIFR AND
BACK. ELM/BGM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE
ERIE THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR
RESTRICTIONS. BY THE EVENING, SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO LIGHTEN
UP AND THUS MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING,
WITH VFR OVERNIGHT. ITH SHOULD SEE THE LEAST IMPACT FROM THE
SNOW AS THE BANDS ARE FOCUSED NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. A
FEW PERIODS OF MVFR IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. IFR COULD
BRIEFLY OCCUR OF A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER MOVES OVERHEAD, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
AVP WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. THE HIGHEST
GUSTS OF AROUND 30-35 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. LLWS
IS FORECAST AT BGM AND ELM TONIGHT, WITH 45KTS OF SHEAR POSSIBLE
UP TO FL020 FROM 00Z TO 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SOME LINGERING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES, OTHERWISE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-
018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ017-
044>046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ022.
SYNOPSIS...DK/ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...JTC
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