947
FXUS61 KBGM 292045
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
345 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, BEFORE COLDER AIR PUSHES IN SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. PARTLY SUNNY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. THE NEXT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING A
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING, BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S AFTER SUNSET AND HOLD RATHER
STEADY OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS BEGIN INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT,
BECOMING BREEZY (10-20 MPH, GUSTS 30 MPH) ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT IS BRINGING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THEN HEADS OUR WAY LATE TONIGHT.
FOR OUR AREA, STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THE
INCREASING SOUTH WIND AS A MID LEVEL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT, WHEN EVENTUALLY SOME LIGHT
SNOW WILL BREAK OUT, AFTER THE DRIER LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS MIX
OUT. THE HIGHEST POPS BEFORE DAYBREAK WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA, UP TOWARD THE I-90
CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WITH JUST A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH...WITH NONE
EXPECTED IN NE PA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE UPSLOPING SOUTHERLY
FLOW COULD BOOST AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES OVER FAR NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY BY 7 AM EST SUNDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUE SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR CNY...WITH ONLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN NE PA. RAIN EVENTUALLY STARTS TO MIX IN FOR THE
VALLEYS BY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE UP INTO THE
30S AREAWIDE. LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA; EXCEPT AGAIN NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY, WHERE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT; FOR 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE COUNTY (UP TO 7" LOCALLY).
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -11C OVER LAKE
ONTARIO LATE AT NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG A W-NW FLOW, APPROXIMATELY
300-310 DEGREES. THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND BANDS COULD ADD
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT
AREAS OF CENTRAL NY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE COLD,
DROPPING INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES
AND CLOUDS MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE SKIES TURN PARTLY SUNNY FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-20S TO MID-30S AREAWIDE.
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER NORTHEAST PA AND
CENTRAL NY STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT. CURRENT TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN FOR A FASTER
ARRIVAL TIME AND SLIGHTLY LOWER QPF AMOUNTS. THESE TRENDS ARE
DUE TO THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED AND FASTER MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST STUCK CLOSER TO 13Z NBM ALONG
WITH WPC GUIDANCE. THERE REMAIN SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE 12Z
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ON TIMING, QPF, TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
ULTIMATELY SNOWFALL AMOUNT. PROBABILITIES REMAIN GENERALLY
STEADY FOR 3"+ SNOWFALL OVER THE REGION; RANGING FROM 25% OVER
THE NW FINGER LAKES TO 50-70% FROM BINGHAMTON SOUTH AND EAST
INTO THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR
ABOUT 0.25 TO PERHAPS 0.50 INCHES OF QPF FROM THIS QUICK HITTING
WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM. WITH SNOW RATIOS LIKELY BETWEEN 10-15:1
SEVERAL INCHES A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY. THE SNOW COULD IMPACT TRAVEL AS EARLY AS THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE AND LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.
TEMPERATURES START OFF COLD LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING, WELL DOWN INTO THE 20S. THIS COLD DENSE DOME OF AIR
SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. FORECAST PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM SHOW
PLENTY OF VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER. EXACT
DETAILS SUCH AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL CHANGING AND DO
REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. SOME RAIN OR MIXED PRECIPITATION
COULD MIX IN WITH THE SNOW ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND OTHER
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS IN NE PA. WHEN/IF CONFIDENCE GROWS IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR FORECAST UPDATES AS CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM INCREASES IN THE COMING DAYS.
THE SNOW LIKELY TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING, WITH JUST SOME SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES LINGERING OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER STRENGTHENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON A NW
FLOW, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING DOWN BETWEEN ABOUT 15-25 F.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK WILL BE A COLD
WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
FEATURES GENERALLY DRY, CALM, PARTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP INTO THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY; BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME SNOW SQUALLS. 850MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
AROUND -18C OR EVEN BRIEFLY LOW, ALONG WITH SUB 516DM THICKNESS
IN THE 1000-500MB LAYER. THIS WILL CAUSE LOWERING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN FACT
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO
POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR ON AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
FRIDAY OR NEXT SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST
OF THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT KSYR AND KITH DUE TO SOME LINGERING LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND FLURRIES. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE
TONIGHT AND WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
TO CENTRAL NY. CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS IS HIGHEST AT KSYR AND
KRME, BUT BRIEF MVFR VISBY RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT KITH, KBGM, AND KELM AS WELL. BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING, MVFR TO FUEL ALTERNATE CEILING RESTRICTIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR AT KSYR.
LLWS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KSYR LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR LLWS AT KRME
DURING THAT SAME TIMEFRAME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF THERE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW POSSIBLE AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR; SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND KSYR AND KRME.
THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ009.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJG
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