987
FXUS61 KBGM 010457
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1157 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFING BUILDS OVER THE
AREA FOR MONDAY, BRINGING PARTLY SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN TRACKS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST BRINGING A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. REMAINING COLD WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS HEADING
INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS TO THE
AREA, AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND -10C LATE AT NIGHT. THIS
COLDER NW FLOW WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF OF GEORGIAN BAY, LAKE ONTARIO AND PERHAPS EVEN THE FINGER LAKES.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER 1 INCH. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY DOES CONTINUE FOR FAR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY, WHERE
LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ARE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES CONTINUE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR, BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
(-10C AT 850MB) REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY, IT WILL BE COLD
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS. NW WINDS
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
***WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY; WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE CWA***
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SLIDE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
MOISTURE QUICKLY INCREASING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. CURRENT GUIDANCE
IS STARTING TO COME TO A CONSENSUS THAT SNOW WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD
CNY/NE PA BETWEEN ABOUT 2-7 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE REMAIN
RATHER SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO THE PREDICTED
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US, THAT WILL TRACK UP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES
TO BE THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND TRACKS THE LOW THE FURTHER NW; THIS
SOLUTION WOULD BRING HEAVIER QPF/SNOW FURTHER NW ACROSS OUR CWA,
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME IT WOULD BRING IN MILDER AIR, WITH MIXING OR
RAIN DEVELOPING IN NE PA. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS LESS AMPLIFIED AND
FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW TRACK; BRINGING LESS QPF AND SNOW TO
OUR REGION. THE 12Z GFS AND CMC-REG MODELS ARE GENERALLY MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD SOLUTIONS, WITH THE LOW TRACK, QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN
THE MORE OUTLIER NAM AND EC SOLUTIONS. 12Z GEFS NUDGED NORTHWEST
WITH THE LOW TRACK, BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF TO OUR CWA COMPARED
TO THE 00Z RUN. ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT THE 12Z ECMWF ENS MEAN ALSO
NUDGED QPF AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER (COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUN) FOR OUR
AREA, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WATCHES ARE NOW IN PLACE.
OVERALL, CONSIDERING THE REMAIN MODEL DISCREPANCIES, STUCK CLOSE TO
THE NBM AND WPC DATA FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WITH INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 6 OR 7 INCHES OF SNOW BASED ON THE
CONSENSUS DATA, AND IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS/WPC
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR NE
PA ZONES, CATSKILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE NY SOUTHERN TIER/SUSQUEHANNA
REGION OF CNY. IF FURTHER NW TRENDS CONTINUE THEN THIS WATCH AREA
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AND/OR EVENTUALLY UPGRADED TO A WARNING...IF
THE MORE SOUTHEAST SOLUTIONS (SUCH AS THE ECMWF) ARE CORRECT THEN
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY NEEDED AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME. CONSIDERATION WAS ALSO GIVEN THAT THIS WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER THE
REGION, AND THE TIME OF ARRIVAL COULD BE JUST BEFORE THE MORNING
COMMUTE...POTENTIALLY INCREASING IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ETC.
AFTER THE SNOW BREAKS OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AM, THE
SNOW SHOULD BECOME STEADY AND EVEN LOCALLY HEAVY HEADING INTO THE
MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1"/HR, ESPECIALLY IN
AND AROUND THE WATCH LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES START OFF VERY COLD
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, IN THE LOW TO MID-20S AS THE SNOW STARTS.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW OR PERHAPS MID-
30S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL, SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD BE HIGH
(15:1) ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SLRS MAY DROP SOME, BETWEEN 9-13:1 HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS SHOULD BE A DRY, POWDERY SNOW FOR THE MOST PART IN CNY,
TRENDING MORE AVERAGE TO PERHAPS A WETTER CONSISTENCY FOR NE PA.
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF AND END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW RACES NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW A
FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT, WITH COLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED (IN THE 10S TO LOW 20A).
WEDNESDAY IS GENERALLY DRY, PARTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WITH A WEAK
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NY BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
SEASONABLY COLD, IN THE 20S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SNOW SQUALLS. EXPECT
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WINDS AS WELL. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT
OF COLDER AIR, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND -18C OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
WITH LIKELY FAIRLY FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN ABOUT 5 BELOW AND 10 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE AREA; WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. FRIDAY IS LIKELY DRY, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COLD CONDITIONS LINGERING. WATCHING THE NEXT SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME, BUT CHANCES FOR SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AS A LOW TRACKS SOUTH
OF THE AREA, AND PERHAPS UP ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES START
TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT
STILL WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRIER AIR HAS PUNCHED INTO THE REGION AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL
REALLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS. STILL
THINK THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN INTERVAL OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
PRESENT TOWARD SUNRISE THOUGH. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT IN THE
12-17Z TIMEFRAME TODAY TO VFR.
OUTLOOK...
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY, POTENTIALLY IFR OR LIFR VISIBILITIES TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR; SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND KSYR AND KRME.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ009.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ045-046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC/MWG
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