641
FXUS61 KBGM 011128
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
628 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING PARTLY SUNNY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS
TODAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN COLD
WITH OFF AND ON SNOW CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER
BEYOND SUNRISE, DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO WIN OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MAX OUT IN THE 20S
AND 30S TODAY. HOWEVER, BREEZY WINDS WILL PUT WIND CHILLS INTO THE
TEENS THIS MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY BECOME CALMER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. TONIGHT WILL START OUT QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD
OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US, SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND COULD
RESULT IN A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY PRIOR
TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
***WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY; WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.***
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE UP THE COAST DURING THE DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL TRACK AND TIMING. OVERALL, QPF
HAS TRENDED LOWER THOUGH THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THAT COMPONENT OF THIS SYSTEM. LOOKING AT WPC'S
EXPERIMENTAL CLUSTER ANALYSIS 24-HR QPF FOR THIS EVENT, THE TOP
TWO CLUSTERS HAVE THE SAME AMOUNT MEMBERS BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON
HOW FAR NORTH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FAIRLY QUICK TO MOVE THROUGH, SO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN QPF SEEMS
REASONABLE. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND, NBM LOOKED REASONABLE FOR
THIS FORECAST AND WAS USED FOR QPF AND SNOW RATIOS. AS A RESULT,
THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS ALSO TRENDED LOWER. THIS KEEPS THE
HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT NOW PUTS TOTALS AT
BORDERLINE WARNING CRITERIA. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, IT WAS DECIDED TO LEAVE THE WATCH AS IS FOR
NOW AND GIVE IT ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE TO DECIDE WHETHER TO GO
WITH A WARNING OR ADVISORY. FOR THE REST OF THE NY COUNTIES
THAT WERE NOT IN A WATCH, AN ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AS CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND OR EXCEED ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT LOW THAT TOTALS WOULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
PRECIPITATION FOR THIS EVENT SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES CLOSER THE REGION, SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INLAND.
TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST PA MAY BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX THAT WOULD INCLUDE SNOW, RAIN, AND
POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. THIS MIX WOULD BE BRIEF THOUGH AND
NO ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. IF ROADS ARE WET HOWEVER AND
TEMPERATURES THE FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THE EVENING, BLACK ICE
WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S WITH MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TEMPERATURES THEN FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BUT THOSE SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES RETURN BACK INTO THE
30S ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST AS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST PARTS OF THE WEEK. THE
WEEKEND REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SPLIT US BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY KEEPING THE START OF THE
WEEKEND DRY. THEN ON SUNDAY, MODELS DIFFER AS SOLUTIONS LIKE
ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW AND SHOT OF COLD AIR. MEANWHILE, THE GFS SHOWS A
DEVELOPED LOW MOVING THROUGH BEFORE THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SNOW SQUALLS. EXPECT
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WINDS AS WELL. THIS WILL BE A QUICK SHOT
OF COLDER AIR, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND -18C OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT, AND
WITH LIKELY FAIRLY FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
BETWEEN ABOUT 5 BELOW AND 10 ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE AREA; WINDS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. FRIDAY IS LIKELY DRY, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COLD CONDITIONS LINGERING. WATCHING THE NEXT SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME, BUT CHANCES FOR SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AS A LOW TRACKS SOUTH
OF THE AREA, AND PERHAPS UP ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES START
TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT
STILL WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ONCE AGAIN FORMED NEAR KITH, KELM
AND KBGM. THESE SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KELM WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE AT KITH AND KBGM. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD END AND CEILING
LIFT TO VFR BY AROUND 16Z. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD
WIDESPREAD SNOW REACHING ALL TAF SITES AROUND 09-12Z TUESDAY
WITH IFR AND EVENTUALLY SOME LIFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY... ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH IFR AND LIFR RESTRICTIONS,
ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR; SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NYZ045-046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...BTL/MJM
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL/MJM
AVIATION...MWG
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