969
FXUS61 KBGM 020557
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1257 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUIET WEATHER THIS EVENING, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. THE NEXT WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW TO ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA STARTING LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. A GENERAL 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
**WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
SULLIVAN COUNTY**
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE INCOMING WINTER STORM FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
STARTING OFF WITH INCREASING CLOUDS, BUT QUIET WEATHER THIS EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THEN A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME MOVES INTO OUR AREA
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
GENERALLY A BIT WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW
TRACK...BUT THE RANGE OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA HAS DECREASED. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT QPF AMOUNTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BETWEEN ABOUT 0.30" AND 0.50" OVER MOST OF
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA; BUT AMOUNTS COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ALONG A STRIPE FROM PIKE TO SULLIVAN
COUNTIES. THE SNOW RATIOS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
BETWEEN 12-15:1 FOR CNY AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA...BUT A LITTLE
LOWER BETWEEN 8-12:1 OVER THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONO REGION.
SLRS COME DOWN SLIGHTLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AREAWIDE.
THEREFORE, OVERALL TRENDS ARE FOR A GENERAL MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES BEING THE MOST
LIKELY RANGE FOR TOTALS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THERE COULD BE A STRIPE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SULLIVAN COUNTY WHERE 5 TO 9 INCHES IS MOST
LIKELY. SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PIKE, WAYNE, EASTERN
DELAWARE AND OTSEGO COUNTIES COULD ALSO SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE 6-8 RANGE. PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER, IT SEEMED MOST PRUDENT TO
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA (EXCEPT WINTER
STORM WARNING IN SULLIVAN COUNTY)...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
LIKELY IMPACT IN THE MORNING COMMUTE. THROUGH THE EVENT TEMPERATURES
WILL START IN THE LOW TO MID-20S AND SLOWLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID-30S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE RAIN
TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER IN FAR EASTERN PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION
TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR THE TWIN TIERS, CATSKILLS AND THE REST
OF CENTRAL NY. TOP SNOWFALL RATES BASED IN THE LATEST HREF AND CAMS
SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS OF AROUND 1"/HR...WITH PERHAPS 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR FOR A SHORT TIME IN SULLIVAN COUNTY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENT, UNDER 10 MPH.
AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE WIND
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE BETWEEN 10-20 MPH OVERNIGHT.
COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN WILL ALSO INITIATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UNDER A HALF INCH
ANTICIPATED. COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE 10S TO MID-20S AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE MAIN STORY FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE AN INCOMING ARCTIC FRONT WITH
SNOW SHOWERS, SQUALLS AND COLD WIND CHILLS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
BRIEF SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY BRINGING
DRY, PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE NEXT
POTENT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL INCREASE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL NY LATE AT NIGHT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SQUALLS
ARE LIKELY. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS STARTING TO LIGHT UP A BIT,
CONSIDERING THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MODEST INSTABILITY AND
MUCH COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR SURGING INTO THE REGION. 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET TO NEAR -20C BY THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND.
INITIALLY IT WILL BE BLUSTERY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. THESE COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF 5 BELOW TO 10
ABOVE ZERO THURSDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. EVENTUALLY THE WINDS
DIMINISH AS A COLD CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS, AND EVEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY AND PERHAPS
THE OTHER NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GENERALLY COLD AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NOW AS OUR AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS; ONE TO OUR NORTH AND ANOTHER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. SLIGHT CHANCES TO LOW END CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS SOME
MOISTURE TRIES TO SPREAD NORTH AND A LOW MOVES UP OFF THE EAST
COAST. OVERALL, THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A MINOR SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA AT
THIS TIME, WITH TRENDS BEING FOR LESS PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ONE.
OVERALL, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND, MAINLY DUE
TO LAKE EFFECT OR WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. TURNING COLDER WITH MORE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FOR NEXT MONDAY. OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE NBM GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SW CANADA, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST US,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW
CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER GREENLAND WILL
HELP TO REINFORCE THIS COLDER THAN AVERAGE, NEGATIVE NAO PATTERN FOR
OUR AREA IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ON FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 3 HOURS
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE CEILINGS START TO LOWER AND THE FIRST
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED, THERE REMAINS SOME VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE THAT THE
SNOW NEEDS TO INITIALLY OVERCOME, BUT ONSET STILL LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK BETWEEN 08-10Z FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH AVP BEING
SLIGHTLY LATER CLOSER TO 11Z. AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS, IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AND LOWEST VISIBILITY EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z AND
18Z. AS THE SNOW DEPARTS BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z, IFR RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO END, BUT MVFR/FUEL ALT CEILINGS REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF, BUT NO IFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR; SPOTTY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR NYZ062.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...DK/JTC
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