399
FXUS61 KBGM 022346
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING THE AREA THIS EVENING,
WITH JUST SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PARTLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. WATCHING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
FEW SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
500 PM UPDATE
THE REST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND THE WINTER STORM
WARNING HAVE BEEN CANCELED AS SNOW HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA.
SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FINGER
LAKES REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IF SNOW DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT IMPACTFUL.
320 PM UPDATE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED OR BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT: ONEIDA, OTSEGO, DELAWARE, WAYNE AND PIKE. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY ALSO CONTINUES. THE
LINGERING SNOW WILL BE PULLING EAST AND OUT OF THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY 5-6 PM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
CURRENT WINTER STORM IS QUICKLY WINDING DOWN NOW, WITH THE SNOW
EXITING AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-81 AT THIS TIME (230 PM EST).
SNOW WILL LINGER, SOME LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY UNTIL 3-5 PM
OVER OUR FAR EASTERN FORECAST ZONES, SUCH AS THE CATSKILLS AND
PIKE COUNTY IN NE PA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE BY 3 PM....EXCEPT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR SOME LIGHT
ADDITIONAL SNOW FROM ONEIDA DOWN TO DELAWARE COUNTY IN NY, AND
PIKE/WAYNE COUNTIES IN NE PA UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING (~6PM
EST). THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SULLIVAN COUNTY ALSO CONTINUES
UNTIL 6 PM EST WHERE AGAIN, ANOTHER FEW HOURS OR MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR. OVERALL, BASED ON TOTALS RECEIVED MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAD SNOWFALL TOTALS FALL IN THE RANGE THAT
WAS EXPECTED; BETWEEN ABOUT 3-7 INCHES. WE ARE STILL WAITING TO
SEE WHAT ULTIMATELY ENDS UP FALLING IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING
ZONE ACROSS SULLIVAN COUNTY.
THE SNOW COULD END AS A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SLEET PELLETS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN,
REINVIGORATING SOME NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF OF ONTARIO AND
THE FINGER LAKES BANDS. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AFTER 7 PM
WILL ONLY BE A LIGHT DUSTING AT BEST. IT REMAINS MAINLY CLOUDY
OVERNIGHT AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 10S TO MID-20S.
CLOUDS LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH PERHAPS A FEW LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES EARLY. SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR FOR SOME SUNSHINE LATER
IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S EXPECTED.
STARTING OFF DRY WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN
PUSHING INTO OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN THURSDAY HOURS. SNOWFALL SHOULD BE MINIMAL,
UNDER 1 INCH WITH THESE SHOWERS. SEASONABLE WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SNOW SQUALLS ON THURSDAY AS A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. EXACT TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT IN GENERAL THE
SQUALLS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS LATER IN
THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THE
SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MODEST
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY PRESENT, GUSTY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
PLUNGING 925MB TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, MAINLY UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN CENTRAL
NY, WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FOR NE PA. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NARROW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS IN CENTRAL NY.
THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND NARROW BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
AND DISSIPATE THURSDAY NIGH AS A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES MAY EVEN CLEAR OUT, LEADING
TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING PARAMETERS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO BE VERY COLD, RANGING FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW ZERO TO 10
ABOVE, WITH SOME COLDER APPARENT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE EVEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. FRIDAY WILL BE COLD, DRY AND PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EXPECTED. OVERALL
JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT QUITE AS COLD, WITH
LOWS IN THE 10S EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A ZONAL FLOW TO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHEAST US FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR OUR AREA THIS WILL MEAN
SOME SNOW SHOWERS, MINOR LAKE EFFECT BANDS AND SEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. IT LOOKS TO TURN EVEN A LITTLE COLDER
SUNDAY NIGHT, BEHIND A CANADIAN FRONT; THIS WILL BRING LOWS DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS OVER THE CWA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS MORE OF THE SAME, WITH STEADY, SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES AND MORE CHANCES FOR INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE AREA LATE
NEXT TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF THIS LOW CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SNOW HAS MOSTLY EXITED THE AREA TO THE EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WE GET COLD
AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NW. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES AT ITH WITH IFR
CEILINGS THAT SHOULD STICK AROUND PAST MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD
LIFT AFTER 1AM BUT THEY MAY STICK AROUND LONGER AS THE CLOUD
DECK IS HOVERING AROUND FL010 INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SYR
SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF IFR CEILINGS AFTER 02Z, LASTING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE HERE IS MODERATE THAT IFR WILL
RETURN. THE BIG FACTOR WILL BE IF WE CAN GET MORE OF A WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE WIND DIRECTION WHICH WILL TAKE AWAY SOME OF
THE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE TUG HILL PLATEAU AND BRING MORE LAKE
ONTARIO MOISTURE INTO THE TERMINAL WHICH WOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO
DROP A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET INTO IFR CONDITIONS WHICH WOULD LAST
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BGM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE IFR
CEILINGS INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS.
RME/ELM/AVP CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN FUEL ALT/MVFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/FUEL ALT CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA AS A FRONT APPROACHES.
THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...JTC/MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC
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