984
FXUS61 KBGM 030615
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
115 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
SEVERAL WEAK CLIPPERS THEN LOOK TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND SLOWLY ERODING AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
30'S. TONIGHT, WITH RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WON;T FALL MUCH ONLY INTO THE 20'S.
THE ARCTIC FRONT THEN LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SNOW SHOWER AND SNOW SQUALL FORMATION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO STEEPEN COUPLED WITH
ABOUT 50 J/KG CAPE. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ON MODELED SOUNDINGS
STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE TO GET SOME 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS TO THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP SLIGHTLY OR
STAY STEADY SO THE FLASH FREEZE COMPONENT OF THIS MAY BE PRESENT
AS WELL. SNOW LOOKS TO BE OF A FLUFFIER VARIETY GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP WITH RATIOS NEAR 20:1. AS A RESULT, SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL.
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE IN CNY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
WINDS SWITCH TO WEST-NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME THURSDAY EVENING
WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GET A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. EVEN WITH THE
TRADITIONAL HIGHER RATIOS QPF LOOKS ONLY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
TOP TOTALS NEAR 3 INCHES IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH
MUCH LESS ELSEWHERE. IF CLEARING CAN OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT,
LOWS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRING A TOUCH OF MOISTURE WITH IT TO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
STAYING WITH CONSENSUS TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. FRIDAY WILL BE
COLD AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20'S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK LOW SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH. A SPLIT-
FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH A FEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS A FEW WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION. TIMING OF THESE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IS HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AT SOME POINT BUT EXACT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. STILL A WINTRY PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20'S AND 30'S FOR HIGHS. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MVFR/FUEL-ALT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. THERE CAN BE SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF
IFR CEILINGS AT BGM THROUGH 12Z. THE CHANCES FOR IFR
RESTRICTIONS AT SYR HAVE LOWERED WITH CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SOME
CLEARING JUST OFF TO THE WEST, AND THAT CLEARING IS SLOWLY
PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST, BUT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED AND IF NEED BE, AMENDED INTO THE TAF.
BY MID TO LATE MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
PLACE AND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT.
AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING LATER TONIGHT CAN START TO LOWER
CEILINGS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF AROUND RME, BUT ANY SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND THERE AND SYR ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/FUEL ALT CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES.
THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AT THE
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...DK/JTC
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