424
FXUS61 KBGM 031800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
100 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
SEVERAL WEAK CLIPPERS THEN LOOK TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
CLOUDS AND SLOWLY ERODING AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE
30'S. TONIGHT, WITH RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
TEMPERATURES WON;T FALL MUCH ONLY INTO THE 20'S.
THE ARCTIC FRONT THEN LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SNOW SHOWER AND SNOW SQUALL FORMATION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO STEEPEN COUPLED WITH
ABOUT 50 J/KG CAPE. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ON MODELED SOUNDINGS
STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE TO GET SOME 20-30 MPH WIND GUSTS TO THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP SLIGHTLY OR
STAY STEADY SO THE FLASH FREEZE COMPONENT OF THIS MAY BE PRESENT
AS WELL. SNOW LOOKS TO BE OF A FLUFFIER VARIETY GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP WITH RATIOS NEAR 20:1. AS A RESULT, SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW FROM ANY SNOW SQUALL.
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE STILL LOOKS TO BE IN CNY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WINDS SWITCH TO WEST-NORTHWEST FOR A SHORT TIME THURSDAY EVENING
WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GET A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. EVEN WITH THE
TRADITIONAL HIGHER RATIOS QPF LOOKS ONLY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
TOP TOTALS NEAR 3 INCHES IN THE TYPICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS WITH
MUCH LESS ELSEWHERE. IF CLEARING CAN OCCUR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT,
LOWS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTH. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BRING A TOUCH OF MOISTURE WITH IT TO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT BUT
STAYING WITH CONSENSUS TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. FRIDAY WILL BE
COLD AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20'S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM, WHICH WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TIMING OF THESE CLIPPERS REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BEING THIS FAR OUT AND THEREFORE THE NBM POPS WERE
LEFT AS-IS. DESPITE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM, SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE MINOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM,
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES BEING ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S) AND MONDAY NIGHT (LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS).
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY 20S AND 20S FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
AN ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
START TO LOWER OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
RME AND SYR EARLY MORNING TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT THE CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AT THE
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
NYZ018-036.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...KL
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