486
FXUS61 KBGM 040018
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
718 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
SEVERAL WEAK CLIPPERS THEN LOOK TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WESTERLY FLOW HOLDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PASS OVERHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS HEADING
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN PUSHING INTO
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN
THURSDAY HOURS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON GENERATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS.
CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MODEST INSTABILITY, AND MOIST TEMPERATURE
PROFILES THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. PARAMETERS ALIGN MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL NY, BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST
PA BUT NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS.
WESTERLY FLOW SHIFTS NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ADVECTING COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION. ARCTIC AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB TO
PLUNGE INTO THE -15 TO -18 RANGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A TRANSITION
TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS LATER IN THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NY. LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE SNOW BANDS, OTHERWISE MAINLY EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES AREAS
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR
ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL TAPPER
OFF LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC
AIR MASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW
ZERO TO 10 ABOVE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
COLD START FRIDAY WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE. WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE MORNING, BUT TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM AS THE
DAY PROGRESS'S, BUT ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL KEEPING
CONDITIONS QUIET. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE WONT BE AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT, BUT STILL COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW TO UPPER TEENS WITH SOME SPOTS IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOW SHOWERS
MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SERIES OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE LONG TERM, WHICH WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. TIMING OF THESE CLIPPERS REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BEING THIS FAR OUT AND THEREFORE THE NBM POPS WERE
LEFT AS-IS. DESPITE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE LONG
TERM, SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE MINOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM,
WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES BEING ON MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S) AND MONDAY NIGHT (LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS).
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY 20S AND 20S FOR HIGHS ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z TONIGHT. A FRONT
APPROACHES TOMORROW AND PASSES THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 13Z
AND 17Z WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
ALONG THE FRONT COULD BECOME SQUALLS WITH LIFR VIS DUE TO THE
FALLING SNOW AND WINDS. THE SQUALLS WONT BE WIDESPREAD SO RIGHT
NOW A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR THE TIMING OF
THE SNOW SQUALLS WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SYR AND RME.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW LIKELY DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH MAINLY CNY WITH ELM
AND AVP LIKELY MISSING OUT ON THE SNOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO SET UP IN THE
VICINITY OF SYR AND RME FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO KEEP IFR OR LIFR IN THE TAFS
FOR THE 18Z TO 0Z TIMEFRAME BUT MAY BE NEEDED IF IT LOOKS LIKE
THE BAND WILL SET UP OVER ONE OF THE TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AT THE
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN, MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
CNY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
NYZ018-036.
SYNOPSIS...ES/MWG
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG/KL
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