743
FXUS61 KBGM 040708
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
208 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, PRODUCING
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SQUALLS. BEHIND THE FRONT,
COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE WILL PLENTY
OF CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL FAST
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS PUSH THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT OR ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS. INSTABILITY IS
MODEST WITH NAM SHOWING 25-50 J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT ONE
THING TO NOTE FROM THE SOUNDINGS ARE LOWERING EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
STARTING LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT, THEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SQUALLS WILL BE
MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE, AWAY
FROM THE LAKES, THE DGZ WILL SHRINK AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN
AND UNZIPS THE COLUMN.
FORECAST SOUNDING ARE ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTS, CAUSING DRIFTING SNOW AND FURTHER REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS. THE BEST CHANCE TO
SEE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS WILL MAINLY BE OVER CENTRAL
NY, BUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT DOWN INTO NORTHEAST PA.
BEHIND THE FRONT, FLOW WILL TURN FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR WITH T850 DROPPING TO -15C
TO -18C. THIS WILL ALLOW A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY. LOCALIZED
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE SNOW BANDS, OTHERWISE
MAINLY EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS FOR ONONDAGA AND MADISON
COUNTIES. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION FOR INCLUDING ONEIDA
COUNTY IN AN ADVISORY AS WELL, WITH AMOUNTS POSSIBLY TOPPING 4",
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE THERE AND IF A BAND DOES SET UP OVER
ONEIDA, THEN A SHORT FUSE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CAN ALWAYS BE
POSTED AT A LATER TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN.
THE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON
SO FAR AS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVERHEAD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 10 ABOVE WITH WIND CHILL VALUES DIPPING
BELOW -10F IN SOME AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW WARMER
RETURN FLOW TO TAKE HOLD BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING
TEMPERATURES SOME. HOWEVER, HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT, BUT STILL CHILLY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER
TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHERN
ONEIDA WILL LIKELY HIT SINGLE DIGITS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER CENTRAL NY. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW
20S. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD
BE LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. SEVERAL FAST
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT THROUGH
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD, BRINGING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS
IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT AND THEREFORE NBM POPS WERE USED
STRAIGHT UP. DESPITE THE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR NUISANCE SNOW IN
THE LONG TERM, NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE MINOR.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS CNY THAT OCCASIONALLY CAN PRODUCE
MVFR VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
AN ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN
13Z AND 18Z WITH SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. SOME OF THE
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT COULD BECOME SQUALLS WITH LIFR VIS DUE
TO THE FALLING SNOW AND WINDS. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SQUALLS, PROB30 GROUPS REMAIN IN THE
TAFS HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHEST FOR SYR AND RME.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, MAINLY FOR THE CNY TERMINALS. A
HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO LOOKS TO SET
UP NEAR SYR AROUND 19Z AND LINGER AROUND THERE FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS
BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEAKENING. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIFR RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY AT THE
CENTRAL NY TERMINALS.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN, MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF
CNY WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR NYZ018-036.
SYNOPSIS...ES/MPK
NEAR TERM...ES/MPK
SHORT TERM...ES/MPK
LONG TERM...BJG/MPK
AVIATION...AJG/DK
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