727
FXUS61 KBGM 081142
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
642 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THIS WEEK, WITH SEVERAL
CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH ONLY A
BRIEF PERIOD TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
WEEK, AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SITS OVERHEAD.
RADIATIONAL COOLING, COMBINED WITH THE ALREADY COLD AIRMASS,
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT. BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, MANY OF US WILL WAKE UP TO TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO AND
WITH A FEW SPOTS COMING IN BELOW ZERO. LUCKILY THE WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY CALM BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A LITTLE BIT
BEFORE SUNRISE, WHICH WOULD PUSH WINDCHILLS AS LOW AS 5 TO 10
BELOW ZERO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING.
A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
HAVE INCREASED POPS ABOVE NBM AS THIS WAVE MAY KICK OFF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NO MORE
THAN A COATING TO A HALF INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, BUT
POSSIBLY AN INCH OR MORE ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE I90 CORRIDOR.
ALSO, STARTING TUESDAY AT 18Z, DECIDED TO BUMP UP WINDS OVER THE
NBM SOLUTION. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS COULD BE OVER 25 TO 30 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES. AFTER A CHILLY START
TUESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE MID 20S BY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS SINCE THE 12Z CYCLE
YESTERDAY, SO KEPT THE BULK OF THIS DISCUSSION THE SAME WITH
THIS UPDATE.
A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF OUR CWA ACROSS ONTARIO
ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIP WILL MOVE IN ON WED MORNING AND LIKELY
START AS SNOW, THEN AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE DAY, A
CHANGE TO AN ELEVATION BASED RAIN/SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. A CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW WILL RETURN DURING THE EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NW. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CNY.
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY ALL SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SW FLOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT
THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROVIDE UPSLOPE LIFT INTO THE AREA THAT
WILL HELP ENHANCE SNOWFALL CHANCES. CURRENTLY, 3-7 INCHES IS
FORECAST TO FALL OVER THIS AREA THROUGH WED EVENING, WITH MORE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ELSEWHERE, THIS EVENT LOOKS
LIKE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SAY 2-4 INCHES, WHILE VALLEY
LOCATIONS SEE A COATING TO 2 INCHES. WE WILL BE MONITORING HOW
THIS DEVELOPS EARLY THIS WEEK, AS A FEW WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN SOME LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
ON THURSDAY, LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STICK AROUND THE
AREA WITH -12 TO -15C 850MB TEMPS FLOWING OVER LAKE ONTARIO.
THE WIND FIELD LOOKS TO VEER WITH HEIGHT, WHICH WOULD KEEP
SHOWERS MORE CELLULAR THAN BANDED ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER. AFTER THURSDAY, MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS ONE. AGAIN, ANY SYSTEM NEXT
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY MORE ARCTIC AIR AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY AND BECOMES
CENTERED OVERHEAD TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH TODAY AT 5-10 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN,
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE AFTERNOON,
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION WITH SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE AREA.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPK
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC/MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...DK/MPK
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