207
FXUS61 KBGM 090619
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
119 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THIS WEEK, WITH SEVERAL
CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW. THOUGH BRIEFLY NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN GIVES
WAY TO A WEAK WAVE LATE TUESDAY, AHEAD OF A STRONGER INBOUND
CLIPPER.
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ADVECTED IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS,
THOUGH BRISK ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT WHICH IS ZIPPING SOME
HIGH THIN CLOUDS THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LATE
EVENING MOST OF THE AREA WILL GET INTO A CLEAR SKY WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE TO GO
COLD ENOUGH IN THESE SITUATIONS, ESPECIALLY WHERE SNOWPACK
EXISTS. IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER NWS OFFICES WE HAVE SKEWED
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LOWEST END OF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. THE SUBZERO
READINGS WILL BE MOST COMMON IN OUR NY ZONES EAST OF I-81.
LUCKILY THE WIND WILL GO NEAR CALM WHICH WILL PREVENT WIND
CHILLS FROM BEING MUCH COLDER THAN THE AIR TEMPERATURES. DAILY
RECORDS ARE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR BINGHAMTON
AND WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON, WHICH WILL APPROACHED, BUT THE
SYRACUSE RECORD WELL BELOW ZERO WILL BE OUT OF REACH.
THOUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE DRY AND CHILLY, A
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL ZIP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING, WITH A LOBE OF MOISTURE ALOFT YET A LOT OF
DRY AIR UNDERNEATH. THIS MAY YIELD FLURRIES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
TWIN TIERS, A LIGHT COATING TO AN INCH NORTH OF CORTLAND-
NORWICH TO THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR, AND 2-3 INCHES OR SO FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ONEIDA COUNTY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY
SNOW POTENTIAL THOUGH WILL OCCUR JUST AFTER.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD SURGE WITH LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AND POTENTIAL SCATTERED SQUALLS THURSDAY.
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ZIP OVER FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF IT CAUSING A QUICK THUMP
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE FRONT END OF THE CLIPPER. A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY
WHERE HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALMOST OUR ENTIRE AREA SHOULD GET AT
LEAST A SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MIDDAY,
BEFORE RAIN MIXES IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS, GENERALLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-81, WILL BE FAVORED FOR UP TO A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY WHICH COULD CAUSE SLICK
ROADWAYS WHETHER OR NOT REACHING ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY HIT MID TO UPPER 30S WHICH WILL
COMPRESS/MELT MUCH OF WHAT FALLS. HOWEVER, UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
WILL ESPECIALLY OCCUR TOWARDS THE TUG HILL AND TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALMOST ALL SNOW. AS THE CLIPPER PASSES,
WEST- NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN INJECT LAKE MOISTURE AS WELL, SO
WE ARE FORECASTING 5-12 INCHES IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY TOTAL
WHICH IS WHY THE WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA.
ON THURSDAY, GUSTY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS ANOTHER
ARCTIC SURGE DESCENDS OVER THE REGION. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, WITH A MOISTURE LAYER CENTERED AT DENDRITIC GROWTH
TEMPERATURES, SUGGEST THAT WE MAKE GET SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE TWIN TIERS, AND MORE NUMEROUS AND/OR BANDED
STREAMERS OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS OVERALL SPECIFICALLY ON
THURSDAY- THURSDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE THAT HIGH, BUT IT COULD
STILL BE QUITE IMPACTFUL BECAUSE OF THE SQUALLY NATURE OF IT
INCLUDING BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OUR WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD AND BUSY SIDE GOING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM, WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION SIDE LATE FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A
COLD SHOT IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND DETAILS OF THIS
SYSTEM, BUT TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ALL SNOW AS A PRECIPITATION
TYPE. ANYONE WITH TRAVEL PLANS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE FORECAST AND BE PREPARED FOR POTENTIAL WINTER
TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SOME VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AT SYR IS FALLING, BUT
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. THIS SNOW SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS FOR SYR AND RME.
WEDNESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION WITH SNOW AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS MIXING IN.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS IN THE AREA.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ009.
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...JTC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page