965
FXUS61 KBGM 091756
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1256 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THIS WEEK, WITH SEVERAL
CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW. THOUGH BRIEFLY NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BRINGS A QUIET
BUT VERY COLD START TO THE DAY. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AN
ARCTIC COLD AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW ZERO
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. MOST OF TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE
DRY AND CHILLY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF MOISTURE, BUT
WITH DRY AIR UNDERNEATH. THIS WILL MAINLY RESULT IN FLURRIES THAT
EXTEND INTO CENTRAL NY WITH OVERALL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. ALTHOUGH,
ONEIDA COUNTY COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS WITH AMOUNTS
RANGING 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. MAIN CONCERN IS A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTH OF OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TOMORROW
MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY. NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY COULD SEE THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS, BUT ALMOST THE WHOLE AREA SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SOME SNOW BEFORE WARMER AIR CAUSES RAIN TO MIX IN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY WITH SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUING
TO RANGE 5 TO 12 INCHES. WITH THIS EVENT BEING TEMPERATURE AND
ELEVATION DEPENDENT, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT QUITE THERE YET TO ISSUE
ADVISORIES FOR CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ON THURSDAY ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW SETTLING IN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SET
UP ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE,
AND MODEST INSTABILITY. SCATTERED SNOW SQUALLS MAY MAKE IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE TWIN TIERS, AND MORE NUMEROUS OR ORGANIZED
BANDS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK. THIS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS OVERALL SPECIFICALLY
ON THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE THAT HIGH, BUT IT COULD
STILL BE QUITE IMPACTFUL BECAUSE OF THE SQUALL LIKE NATURE OF IT
INCLUDING BLOWING AND DRIFTING. LAKE EFFECT WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST PATTERN LINGERS. A SHORT WAVE THEN
MOVES IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS SOUTH ALLOWING
SHOWERS TO TAPPER OFF. A VERY BRIEF DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO SETTLE
IN JUST BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE LOW
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH COLD AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY LAKE EFFECT LOOKS TO SET UP AS WELL
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES ALL THE WAY THROUGH
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW
FREEZING WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S. THIS WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW AS
A PRECIPITATION TYPE. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY, BUT AGREE
THAT THE PATTERN REMAINS COLD.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR VISBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR AND KRME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN. CONDITIONS THEN
QUICKLY DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A ROUND OF STEADY SNOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD (LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON) AT
KAVP, KELM, KSYR, AND POSSIBLY KRME.
LLWS OF 35-40KTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AT KSYR,
KRME, KELM, AND KAVP BEFORE BRIEFLY DISSIPATING LATER TONIGHT.
THEN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER LLWS WILL MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ009.
SYNOPSIS...ES/MDP
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BJG
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