483
FXUS61 KBGM 092100
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
400 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRINGS PERIODS OF SNOW
TO LATE TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HEADING INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE/CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS, WATCHES AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTION OF THE CWA, FOR THIS AND THE LAKE EFFECT THAT
FOLLOWS.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO NORTH-CENTRAL NY. THIS
WILL BE A VERY MINOR EVENT, AS THE SNOW STRUGGLES TO REACH THE
GROUND UNDER THE HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSION AIR MASS WHICH IS IN
PLACE. DUSTINGS TO PERHAPS 1 INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. AFTER THIS LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MOVES OUT,
THERE WILL BE A BREAK, WITH DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID-10S TO MID-20S.
SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 10-20 MPH IN MOST AREAS.
THE NEXT, MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION SNOW LOOKS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BETWEEN ABOUT 4-8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. STEADY SNOW THEN IMPACTS
MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THERE COULD HOWEVER BE A FEW
HOLES IN THE SNOW, WHERE THE STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
1000-850MB LAYER DOWNSLOPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OR NY
AND THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES REGIONS. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE FOR AREAS SURROUNDING THIS SNOWFALL MINIMUM, SUCH AS S. CAYUGA,
TOMPKINS, TIOGA AND BROOME COUNTIES...HOW SHARP WILL THAT GRADIENT
BE FROM LITTLE SNOW WEST (< 1") TO STEADIER, ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
AMOUNTS (2-5") EAST. RIGHT NOW, MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS THAT LARGE
GRADIENT ACROSS THESE 4 COUNTIES NOTED ABOVE. BROOME COUNTY IS
PARTICULARLY TOUGH, WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM 2 INCHES OR LESS
IN THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY REGION (TRI-CITIES), WITH UP TO 4-5 INCHES
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FAR EAST-NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MORE SNOW THAN THE VALLEY.
FURTHER EAST AND NORTH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS,
OF 2 TO 5 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 7 INCHES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA REGIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGH FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY REACHING WINTER
STORM WARNING CRITERIA OF 6-12 INCHES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING HERE. THE OTHER QUESTION WILL BE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND
IF ANY RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN MIXES IN. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY TO
SEE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT GLAZES OF ICE WILL BE ACROSS NE
PA AND PERHAPS INTO SOUTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN NY, WHERE
TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET CLOSE TO, OR JUST ABOVE 0C WEDNESDAY
MORNING...CAN'T RULE IT OUT FURTHER NORTH EVEN INTO THE PORTIONS OF
CNY, VERY BRIEFLY. OUR LATEST FORECAST TRENDED SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
CONSIDERING HOW COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE NOW.
THE SNOW (AND VALLEY RAIN) GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO. A SHARP
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING JUST ABOVE
EVERYWHERE BY MIDNIGHT. WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW THEN DEVELOPS AND IMPACT CNY HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND THEN LIKELY SETS UP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP ACROSS
THE ONONDAGA--MADISON--S. ONEIDA COUNTY WITH THE SNOW RATES
POTENTIALLY RAMPING UP AGAIN HERE. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE TURNING
MUCH COLDER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID-10S TO LOWER 20S. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS ALSO START TO INCREASE BETWEEN 10-20 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS. THIS COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ONONDAGA--MADISON AND S.
ONEIDA COUNTIES STARTING AT 1 AM THURSDAY MORNING, ALL THE WAY
THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY. MORE DETAILS BELOW ON THIS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW; MAINLY ACROSS ONONDAGA, MADISON AND
SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW SLOWLY
PULLS EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA A LINGERING 500MB AND 700MB LOW
WILL SETUP AND ALMOST STALL OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING IT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH
THIS MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY ON THURSDAY, OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL BE UNDER A VERY COLD AND MOIST NW FLOW PATTERN. EXPECT 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -16C THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MOISTURE SATURATION DEPTHS UP TO TO NEARLY 15-20K FEET, OR
550MB. GFS PROFILES SHOW A STRONG BULLSEYE OF OMEGA CENTERED RIGHT
IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER THURSDAY MORNING AT SYRACUSE. IF THIS DOES
IN FACT OCCUR, THIS WOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR HIGHLY EFFICIENT SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND HIGH SNOWFALL RATES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
RIGHT NOW THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO VARY BETWEEN ABOUT 280-
300 DEGREES, WHICH WOULD AGAIN TARGET THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND PERHAPS
JUST SOUTH FOR THE HIGHEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW TOTALS. THE MOISTURE
DEPTH GRADUALLY LOWERS BELOW 800MB THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MOISTURE
REMAINS CENTERED WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE IN THE SOUNDINGS. THIS
WILL ALLOW LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE.
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT ZONES, THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW SNOW SQUALLS AROUND ON THURSDAY. THE OTHER
MAIN STORY FOR THURSDAY WILL BE THE INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS, WITH
SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS CAN CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OPEN
AND EXPOSED AREAS THAT RECEIVE FRESH, NEW SNOW. IT WILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S (EXCEPT LOW 30S WYOMING VALLEY). THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL FEATURE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OUTSIDE
OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT COUNTIES NOTED ABOVE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 10S ONCE AGAIN.
ON FRIDAY, THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS UP
ACROSS THE SYRACUSE METRO AREA, OTHERWISE A WEAK WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW REENTERING THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING AND BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THIS PERIOD FEATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH A STRONG
ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALSO SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW OR
SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THROUGH MONDAY A COLD 500MB LOW IS PROGGED TO BE SITTING
OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING SUB 504DM THICKNESSES, WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO ALMOST -20C. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD,
SNOW SHOWERS AND BITTER COLD CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE BITTER COLD BEGINS TO SLOWLY EASE AND MODERATE SOME AS
A WEAK CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF MVFR VISBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KSYR AND KRME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN. CONDITIONS THEN
QUICKLY DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A ROUND OF STEADY SNOW
MOVES INTO THE AREA. SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD (LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON) AT
KAVP, KELM, KSYR, AND POSSIBLY KRME.
LLWS OF 35-40KTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AT KSYR,
KRME, KELM, AND KAVP BEFORE BRIEFLY DISSIPATING LATER TONIGHT.
THEN MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AND STRONGER LLWS WILL MOVE IN
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR NYZ009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NYZ017-018-036-037-044>046-057-062.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ056.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJG
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