388
FXUS61 KBGM 100821
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
321 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIP TO THE AREA TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS
THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A STRONG LOW-PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING A ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
A QUICK BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY, WITH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY LIKELY SEEING THE
HIGHEST TOTALS. MOST AREAS, HOWEVER, SHOULD PICK UP AT LEAST SOME
SNOW BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES AND ALLOWS RAIN TO MIX IN AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THIS EVENT IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON BOTH TEMPERATURE AND ELEVATION, THE CHALLENGE WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW SHARP THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT BECOMES AND WHERE IT
SETS UP. THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT SNOW TOTALS IN THE ADVISORY AREAS.
STEADY SNOW WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING INITIALLY, SO THE EARLY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL PRIMARILY
AS SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES RISE LATER IN THE DAY, THE SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX, OR EVEN RAIN IN THE VALLEYS,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN,
PARTICULARLY IN THE WYOMING VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE-FREEZING AIR ALOFT COULD LEAD TO
LIGHT ICING. WHILE SOME BRIEF GLAZE IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA, CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY ICING SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED AND SHORT-LIVED.
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS GREATEST OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT OVER EAST CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA
WHERE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS
HIGH DUE TO VARIABLE TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATION DIFFERENCES.
SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
SHARP COLD FRONT PASSES WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING BRINGING IN
ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALL
BACK BELOW FREEZING. WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NY HEADING INTO
TONIGHT. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW A LAKE EFFECT BAND SETS UP OVER
ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND SOUTH ONEIDA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD AIR MASS
AND PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES AT
850 MB ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND -15°C BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALONG WITH STRONG LIFT. THIS COMBINATION
POINTS TO HIGHLY EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION AND POTENTIALLY HIGH
SNOWFALL RATES. A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING, AS CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND AND FINAL SNOW TOTALS IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
UPGRADE TO A WARNING. ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, AND EVEN BRIEF SNOW
SQUALLS, ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE THAT
STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, MAKING THE DAY QUITE
GUSTY WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT, AND LAKE-EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FRIDAY EVENING, WHICH SHOULD DISRUPT THE
LAKE-EFFECT PATTERN BUT MAY ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING BELOW AVERAGE. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ITS ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER
PUSH OF COLDER AIR ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. IN THE
SYSTEM’S WAKE, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RETURN, ALLOWING LAKE- EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO BETWEEN -17°C AND -20°C, SUPPORTING
CONTINUED LAKE-EFFECT ACTIVITY INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE EARLY
INDICATIONS THAT A RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE
REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY LOWERING CLOSE TO MVFR AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM
WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND 10Z. IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO QUICKLY FOLLOW AT ALL CNY TERMINALS, LASTING THROUGH THE DAY
AS SNOW CHANGES TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AVP SHOULD SEE IFR RESTRICTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BROAD SNOW EXITS IN THE EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
REMAINING. A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN. SYR AND
RME SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWERS A THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
KEEPING CONDITIONS IFR.
LLWS OF 35-40KTS UP TO FL020 WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A FEW HOURS TONIGHT, PICKING UP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE AND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY AT SYR AND RME.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. PERIOD OF STEADIER ACCUMULATING SNOW
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR KAVP, PERHAPS INTO KELM AND KBGM AS
WELL.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ017-018-
036-037-044>046-057-062.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ056.
SYNOPSIS...ES/MJM
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC
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