287
FXUS61 KBGM 110609
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
109 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF
SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATIONS RAIN TO THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH
COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH MORE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR. WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
A 990MB SURFACE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA, OVER LAKE ONTARIO
THIS EVENING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME RAIN IS STARTING TO
MIX IN FOR THE DEEPER VALLEYS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES EVENTUALLY REACH
THE MID 30S. THERE ARE POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW, WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST OF I-81, DUE TO
TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT AND UPSLOPING EFFECTS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 1 INCH WEST OF I-81, WITH 0.5 TO 3 INCHES EAST OF I-81; AND
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE CATSKILLS AND TUG HILL PLATEAU OF NORTHERN ONEIDA. WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE, WITH NO CHANGES, EXCEPT: THE WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR
ONONDAGA, MADISON AND S. ONEIDA COUNTIES FROM 1 AM THURSDAY THROUGH
7 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THIS
FRONT, WITH 850MB TEMPS REACHING -10C AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALSO FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING INTO THE 20S BY LATE
EVENING, OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR OUR NE PA/CATSKILLS ZONES. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTHERN TIER OF NE PA, WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED ( < 1"). DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPS BACK INTO THE LAKE
ONTARIO REGION OF CNY TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY, AND THIS WILL
REINVIGORATE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE. A GEORGIAN BAY
CONNECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO SET UP ON THURSDAY, AIMED ALONG OUR I-
90 CORRIDOR FROM THE SYRACUSE METRO AND TO JUST SOUTH OF UTICA MUCH
OF THE TIME. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL CERTAINLY OSCILLATE
NORTH AND SOUTH AT TIMES, SO THE EXACT LOCATION THAT SEES THE
HEAVIEST TOTALS IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE 12Z NAM BUFKIT
SOUNDING DATA IS SHOWING AND EXCEPTIONAL SETUP FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AT SYR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MOISTURE DEPTH UP TO 15K FT
AGL, A DEEP SNOW GROWTH LAYER AND CROSS HAIR SIGNATURE OF OMEGA
CENTERED WITHIN THAT SNOW GROWTH LAYER. THIS TYPE OF SETUP USUALLY
YIELDS SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 20-25:1 OR HIGHER AND SNOWFALL RATES
UP AROUND 2"/HR IN THE CORE OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. THIS ADDED
CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCHES TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNINGS HERE. TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM THE LAKE EFFECT IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM ABOUT 6-12 INCHES ACROSS THE SYRACUSE METRO AREA, EAST
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 IN MADISON COUNTY, THEN INTO FAR SOUTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN ONEIDA COUNTY; IN LOCATIONS
SUCH AS WATERVILLE, PARIS AND CLINTON. FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (UTICA-
ROME AREA) CURRENT FORECAST INDICATIONS ARE FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE 500MB LOW STALLS, OR SLOWLY MOVES EAST JUST NORTH OF THE NY
BORDER INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH
EVEN COLDER AIR AROUND -15C AT 850MB FILTERING INTO THE AREA. DEEP
MOISTURE UP TO ALMOST 500MB REMAINS IN PLACE FOR A SUSTAINED PERIOD
OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW OVER CENTRAL NY. CONDITIONS BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO MOVE ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, EVEN DOWN IN NE PA HEADING INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES REACH 9.5C/KM
IN THE 0-2KM AGL LAYER, ALONG WITH MUCAPE UP TO 100 J/KG, AND
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS EXPECTED. THE SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER IS LIGHTING UP OVER THE REGION, INCLUDING NE PA. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT FOR THE TWIN TIERS AND NE PA, BUT IT COULD
COME DOWN QUICK, CREATING SNOW COVERED ROADS AND ICY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY PROGGED TO REACH INTO THE 20S
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEST-NW WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY TO WINDY,
SUSTAINED AT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH EXPECTED. FOR AREAS
THAT RECEIVED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF NEW SNOW (A FEW INCHES OR
MORE) BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD CERTAINLY BE AN ISSUE.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY PULLS EAST OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES LATE AT NIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH GRADUALLY DECREASES AND
LOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT, DOWN TO AROUND 800MB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY
START TO BRING SNOWFALL RATES DOWN, BUT THE STEADY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOULD CONTINUE, WHILE AGAIN OSCILLATING BACK AND FORTH ALONG OR JUST
SOUTH OF I-90 MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE SNOW BAND COULD OCCASIONALLY
MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH INTO EVEN SOUTHERN ONONDAGA AND NORTHERN CORTLAND
COUNTIES; HOWEVER IT STILL APPEARS TO MAINLY SETUP ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL ONONDAGA AND MADISON COUNTIES...EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN
ONEIDA AS THE OVERALL FLOW REMAINS BETWEEN 290-300 DEGREES. OUTSIDE
OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT AREAS IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD,
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LOWS REACH INTO THE 10S
AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND COULD BECOME REINVIGORATE FOR A TIME ON FRIDAY
ACROSS NORTHERN ONONDAGA AND NW ONEIDA COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY ON THIS PROSPECT THOUGH, SO DID INCREASE POPS, QPF AND
SNOW AMOUNTS SOME, BUT NOT TOO SIGNIFICANTLY YET, AS WE EVALUATE THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE FOR THIS ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE 10S AND
HIGHS IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS LOW 30S IN THE VALLEYS. THE NEXT CONCERN
WILL BE FOR A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM SPREADING BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR SOME LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE ZIPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST, UPPER OHIO VALLEY THEN
INTO OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE OR EVEN
MUCH AMPLITUDE ALOFT WITH IT, AT LEAST IN THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES DOWN CLOSE TO 504DM AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -18C SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
WEATHER VERY COLD, BLUSTERY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
AROUND. WIND CHILLS COULD EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, IF NOT
BELOW ZERO IN SOME AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AFTER THIS MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOWS MOVES BY, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH
LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS INTO TUESDAY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE A
MODERATING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. THE DETAILS ON THERMAL
PROFILES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN
TIME; BUT IT COULD RANGE FROM RAIN, TO A MIX AND MAYBE A LITTLE SNOW.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVER THE AREA. STRONGER LAKE EFFECT
BANDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING, LASTING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SYR CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE THE TERMINAL IMPACTED THE MOST
AS AN ORGANIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT BAND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IFR
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY AT KSYR AND KRME.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-036-
037.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC
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