001
FXUS61 KBGM 111150
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
650 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COLDER AIR SETTLES IN THIS MORNING, WITH MORE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NY
THRUWAY CORRIDOR. WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE LATE
THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE
FILTERING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE LOW TO UPPER 20S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
KEEPS DEEP WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN PLACE, WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW HELPS
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW, WITH MOISTURE DEPTHS EXTENDING UP TO 15K FT
AND A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN PLACE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGH
SNOW LIQUID RATIOS NEAR 20:1. A GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, WITH THE PRIMARY BAND EXPECTED TO SET UP
ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR, INCLUDING THE SYRACUSE AREA. THE BAND
MAY OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH AT TIMES, CREATING VARIABILITY IN
SNOWFALL TOTALS. WITHIN THE MAIN BAND, SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR ONONDAGA, MADISON, AND SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTIES
WITH APPROXIMATELY 6- 12 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED.
THE ENVIRONMENT ALSO BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEAST PA
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, MODEST INSTABILITY, AND WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WILL SUPPORT BRIEF BUT IMPACTFUL SQUALLS. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS
FROM SQUALLS WILL BE LIGHT, RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITY AND QUICK
ROAD COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY PUSHES EAST. MOISTURE DEPTH WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, LOWERING SNOW GROWTH EFFICIENCY AND BRINGING SNOWFALL
RATES DOWN COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER, STEADY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS, CONDITIONS WILL
TREND PARTLY CLOUD, COLD, AND BREEZY WITH STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW
TO UPPER TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH NORTHERN ONEIDA FALLING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH UPPER LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT NORTH CUTTING OFF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB (-12 DEGREES C)
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO NORTH CENTRAL
NY. TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE REMAIN BELOW FREEZING WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH A FEW SPOTS IN NEPA REACHING 30. WINDS
SHIFT WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT ALLOWING
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TO LIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE. COOLER TEMPERATURES
SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION
SATURDAY BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A DEEP, COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB FALL AROUND -17 DEGREES C BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES INCLUDING LAKE EFFECT. SHORTLY AFTER
THIS, YET ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK RIDGE MID WEEK WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE
MODERATING TREND. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. CURRENTLY, SYR
AND RME ARE THE ONLY TERMINALS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH
FOR IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP. THAT'S NOT TO SAY IFR
WILL NOT HAPPEN AT ITH/ELM/BGM/AVP, BUT WITH THE NARROW AND
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THESE TERMINALS,
CONFIDENCE IN WHEN IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THIS AFTERNOON MAY SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR
IFR CONDITIONS AS SOME HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THAT DEVELOPMENT
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. RME SHOULD SEE IFR MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SYR LATE THIS EVENING AS THE BAND
SHIFTS SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ018-036-
037.
SYNOPSIS...ES/MJM
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC
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