359
FXUS61 KBGM 120603
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
103 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ON AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS. THE PATTERN SHIFTS BY MID
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM ARE FOCUSED ON THE ACCUMULATING
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO AND SUBSEQUENT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ONONDAGA, MADISON AND SOUTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTIES TO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SECOND FOCUS ON
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LES BAND
LIFTS NORTH AND DROPS AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
THEREFORE, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
NORTHERN ONEIDA.
AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS
DRAWING A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND -15 TO -17 DEG C MOVING ACROSS 0 TO +5 DEG C WATER
TEMPERATURE IS CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW. AN EMBEDDED UPPER SHORT WAVE IS SWEEPING AROUND THE BOTTOM
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AND THE DAYTIME HEATING IS CAUSING
ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE LAKE BAND DISORGANIZED
AND MORE MULTI-CELLULAR IN NATURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WHEN
THE SUN STARTS TO SET AND BEHIND THE TROUGH, CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SINGULAR BAND. THIS WINDOW
MAY BE RELATIVELY NARROW BEFORE A LOSS OF MOISTURE, AS
INDICATED BY NUMEROUS GUIDANCE SOURCES.
SO, THE SYRACUSE METRO AREA AND THE I-90 CORRIDOR OVER TO UTICA
CAN ANTICIPATE THE THREAT FOR 1 TO 2" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
FROM AROUND 3 PM TO 8 PM THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE SNOW
INTENSITY PULLS BACK A BIT LATER AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME ACCUMULATIONS LATER TONIGHT, BUT
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER. TOTAL ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 8 INCHES...ON
TOP OF THE COUPLE INCHES MANY AREAS ALREADY RECEIVED TODAY. WE
ARE ALSO CONCERNED FOR THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH AND LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW WILL
MAKE FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
ALLOW THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY INTO PARTS
OF NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY AROUND CAMDEN,
FLORENCE, AND POINT ROCK. AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOW IS FORECAST.
OTHER AREAS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY AND QUIET WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING...OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO
AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. HOWEVER, THE
COMBINATION OF 5 TO 15 MPH WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE NEXT DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ACT TO
SHIFT THE WIND FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO TO THE SOUTHWEST, PUSHING
ANY REMAINING LAKE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW, BUT THE RE-
ENFORCING COLD AIR SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS OVERNIGHT AND ONLY INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
DURING THE DAY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH WILL EJECT TO THE EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRIGGER A BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION...WITH THE
WARMER VALLEY OR LOW ELEVATION AREAS ONLY A TRACE AT BEST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
30S ON SATURDAY.
THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL
HELP DRAW TO THE SOUTH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THIS PATTERN
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES 0 TO +15 DEG F. THE
AIR MASS REMAINS COLD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH YET ANOTHER
CLIPPER DROPPING SOUTH AND ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION WITH A
QUICK HIT OF LIGHT SNOW INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE PATTERN STARTS TO TAKE A WARM TURN BY LATE TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE RELATIVELY WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTAIN A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH COULD TRIGGER
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS PATTERN, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT CNY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SYR IS CURRENTLY SEEING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW,
DROPPING VISIBILITY TO IFR AND BELOW. BASED ON RADAR
PRESENTATION, IT LOOKS LIKE HEAVIER BANDS WILL MOVE IN AND OUT
OF SYR TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS BOUNCING BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR.
THE SNOW BAND SHOULD START TO LIFT NORTH AROUND SUNRISE, LEAVING
MVFR CEILINGS AT SYR BUT BRINGING IFR VISBY TO RME FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BAND MAY TRY AND SNEAK
BACK INTO SYR FROM 14-18Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR CONDITIONS HERE.
ITH AND BGM WILL SEE OFF AND ON MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LIGHT SNOWFALL BANDS MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS.
THEY SHOULD MOVE TO VFR IN THE MORNING AND REMAIN HERE THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ELM AND AVP WILL BE VFR.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO KITH,KELM AND KBGM
LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 AM
EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ018-036-037.
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...JTC
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