871
FXUS61 KBGM 121141
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
641 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ON AND OFF SNOW SHOWERS. THE PATTERN SHIFTS BY MID
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND EXIT EAST OF THE REGION,
THOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED MULTI-BAND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS ONONDAGA COUNTY, WITH
GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
MORE WESTERLY. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW TODAY, THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS SUPPORTIVE THAN
YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -13 TO
-15 DEGREES C, COMBINED WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES NEAR 5 DEGREES
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT, MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A MORE SHALLOW DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA, CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND QUIET, WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 20S
ACROSS MOST AREAS, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA NEARING
30 DEGREES F. TONIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER
TEENS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL CAUSE FLOW TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST,
GUIDING ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE
REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SATURDAY AND IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. BRIEF
SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AN ADVANCING
TROUGH, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND A ROUND OF SNOW
SHOWERS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION, WITH WARMER VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATION AREAS
LIKELY RECEIVING ONLY A TRACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S. BY SUNDAY, THE PRIMARY UPPER
LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION, ALLOWING ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER
AIR TO MOVE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES LIMITING
HIGHS TO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT FALLING TO
AROUND -15 DEGREES C. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. BY TUESDAY NIGHT,
THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHES.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MIDWEEK, ALTHOUGH
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES
APPROACH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS STILL
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS PATTERN, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED THEIR SLOW SLIDE TO THE N.
SYR SHOULD SEE SNOW MOVE N OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND NOON BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR.
VFR RETURNS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. RME WILL
SEE SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OVERHEAD AS THEY SLIDE NORTHWARD. PERIODS
OF IFR SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING IFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LAKE EFFECT BAND IS EXPECTED TO GET MORE
ORGANIZE OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY
LATE AFTERNOON, WITH VFR RETURNING IN THE EVENING.
ITH/BGM/ELM/AVP ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO KITH,KELM AND KBGM
LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ018-036-037.
SYNOPSIS...BJT/ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC
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