746
FXUS61 KBGM 122338
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
638 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW. A MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY TAKING WITH IT THE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AS THEY
SHIFT MORE ALONG THE LONG AXES OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE. THIS
DIRECTIONAL CHANGE IN THE WIND WILL BRING A BRIEF END TO IMPACTFUL
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY FOR CNY AND NEPA. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. A
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY DAYS END, BUT THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SNOW PLUME REINTENSIFIES FOR ONE
LAST GASP BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD JUST EXPERIENCE
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES, TWIN TIERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS TODAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE
REMAINING POSITIVELY TILTED. THE BULK OF ITS SYNOPTIC FORCING PIVOTS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NEPA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF NY NEAR THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS WEAK WITH A LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN SO EXPECTING ONLY A BROAD AREA OF 1-3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IN THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. BY SUNDAY, THE PRIMARY UPPER
LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION, ALLOWING ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR
TO MOVE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES LIMITING HIGHS TO THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW IS ON THE HORIZON
FOR MONDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKELY TO
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS SO
RIGHT NOW ANOTHER 1 OR 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS
ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE LOCKED IN COLD AIR WILL RETREAT
IN THIS FLOW REGIME WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE FAST ZONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED PACIFIC WAVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION TYPE
PROBABILITIES WILL START TO LEAN TOWARD RAIN OVER SNOW OR WINTRY
MIXES, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD PATTERNS, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOWED THE NBM GUIDANCE EXCLUSIVELY DURING
THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WHICH HAS IMPACTED KSYR AND KRME TODAY
IS SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST NY SITES SHOULD SEE
SOME VFR FLURRIES FROM LATE MORNING ON WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WITH A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO KITH,KELM AND
KBGM LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RAIN SHOWERS
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...AJG/MWG
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