555
FXUS61 KBGM 130611
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
111 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW. A MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON
SATURDAY TAKING WITH IT THE PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS AS THEY
SHIFT MORE ALONG THE LONG AXES OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE. THIS
DIRECTIONAL CHANGE IN THE WIND WILL BRING A BRIEF END TO IMPACTFUL
WEATHER TONIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY FOR CNY AND NEPA. ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ENERGY ARRIVING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. A
REDEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY DAYS END, BUT THE BULK OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE SNOW PLUME REINTENSIFIES FOR ONE
LAST GASP BEFORE EXITING OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE SHOULD JUST EXPERIENCE
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES, TWIN TIERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE CATSKILLS TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE
REMAINING POSITIVELY TILTED. THE BULK OF ITS SYNOPTIC FORCING PIVOTS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER NEPA AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF NY NEAR THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS WEAK WITH A LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN SO EXPECTING ONLY A BROAD AREA OF 1-3 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION IN THESE SOUTHERN ZONES. BY SUNDAY, THE PRIMARY UPPER
LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION, ALLOWING ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR
TO MOVE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES LIMITING HIGHS TO THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. YET ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW IS ON THE HORIZON
FOR MONDAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS ONTARIO. LIGHT SNOW SEEMS LIKELY TO
BREAK OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT AREAS SO
RIGHT NOW ANOTHER 1 OR 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN AS
ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THE LOCKED IN COLD AIR WILL RETREAT
IN THIS FLOW REGIME WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE FAST ZONAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT A SERIES OF
EMBEDDED PACIFIC WAVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION TYPE
PROBABILITIES WILL START TO LEAN TOWARD RAIN OVER SNOW OR WINTRY
MIXES, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD PATTERNS, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOLLOWED THE NBM GUIDANCE EXCLUSIVELY DURING
THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ITH OVER THE HOUR OR TWO,
OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO
MID-MORNING HOURS. THEN, A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL BRING SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM ABOUT ITH, NORTH TO SYR AND RME...
LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14Z THIS MORNING. ITH WILL BE RIGHT ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, SO CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS IS LOWER HERE. ADDED IN A TEMPO MVFR RESTRICTION
HERE FROM 14-16Z THIS MORNING TO COVER THE POTENTIAL. SYR AND
RME ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME STEADIER LIGHT SNOW, WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS (VSBYS) BETWEEN ABOUT 14-18 OR 19Z TODAY. THE SNOW
SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFF AND EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THESE TWO TAF SITES BETWEEN 18-22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME, A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR
RME AND SYR (MODERATE CONFIDENCE). FURTHER SOUTH, ELM AND BGM
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE AT BGM. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED, OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF
FLURRIES OR A STRAY SNOW SHOWERS, AS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
REMAINS NORTH OF THESE TWO TERMINALS.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW THEN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, RIGHT
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING, QUICKLY OVERSPREADING AVP AND BGM. AS
THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THESE
TWO TERMINALS; MAINLY FROM 01-06Z, AND IT COULD LINGER LONGER AT
AVP. FURTHER NORTHWEST, ELM AND ITH ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO SEE
LIGHT SNOW ARRIVE AROUND 01Z SUNDAY, WITH ONLY ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO SHOWER LOWER END MVFR VSBYS HERE. WILL WATCH TRENDS FOR THESE
TWO TAF SITES, AND IF THE STEADIER SNOW SHIFTS FURTHER NW WITH
THIS WEAK SYSTEM, SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, TURNING SOUTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING (8-18KTS) THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. WINDS TURN WEST AND DECREASE UNDER 8 KTS THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WITH A PERIOD
OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO KITH,KELM
AND KBGM LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
MINOR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...MJM/MWG
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