891
FXUS61 KBGM 130758
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
258 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ON AND OFF LIGHT SNOW. A MILDER STRETCH OF WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN AROUND MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN DIGGING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ADVECTING SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN COLD, AROUND -10 DEGREES C,
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NY, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST PA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MUCH COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO AROUND -18 DEGREES C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT THIS
FRIGID AIR MASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, SUPPORTING MULTI-BAND
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A PASSING TROUGH AXIS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY.
GIVEN THE WIND DIRECTION AND MODEL GUIDANCE, LAKE EFFECT BANDS
MAY ALSO DEVELOP OFF THE FINGER LAKES. OVERALL, LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO ON
MONDAY, WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE WITH
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM APPEARS LIMITED OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
REGIONS, HOWEVER, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
REMAINS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
THOUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NY. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE BROADER PATTERN BEGINS TO
TRANSITION AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.THIS SHIFT WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WITH DAY TIME TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS FALLING BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE VARIABLE.AT THIS
TIME, THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THIS WARMTH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED, AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE INITIAL PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAIN SHOWERS, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT ITH OVER THE HOUR OR TWO,
OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TO
MID-MORNING HOURS. THEN, A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL BRING SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM ABOUT ITH, NORTH TO SYR AND RME...
LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14Z THIS MORNING. ITH WILL BE RIGHT ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, SO CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS IS LOWER HERE. ADDED IN A TEMPO MVFR RESTRICTION
HERE FROM 14-16Z THIS MORNING TO COVER THE POTENTIAL. SYR AND
RME ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME STEADIER LIGHT SNOW, WITH IFR
RESTRICTIONS (VSBYS) BETWEEN ABOUT 14-18 OR 19Z TODAY. THE SNOW
SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFF AND EXIT TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THESE TWO TAF SITES BETWEEN 18-22Z THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME, A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR
RME AND SYR (MODERATE CONFIDENCE). FURTHER SOUTH, ELM AND BGM
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, WITH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE AT BGM. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED, OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF
FLURRIES OR A STRAY SNOW SHOWERS, AS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
REMAINS NORTH OF THESE TWO TERMINALS.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW THEN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, RIGHT
AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING, QUICKLY OVERSPREADING AVP AND BGM. AS
THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THESE
TWO TERMINALS; MAINLY FROM 01-06Z, AND IT COULD LINGER LONGER AT
AVP. FURTHER NORTHWEST, ELM AND ITH ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO SEE
LIGHT SNOW ARRIVE AROUND 01Z SUNDAY, WITH ONLY ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO SHOWER LOWER END MVFR VSBYS HERE. WILL WATCH TRENDS FOR THESE
TWO TAF SITES, AND IF THE STEADIER SNOW SHIFTS FURTHER NW WITH
THIS WEAK SYSTEM, SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
EXPECTED LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, TURNING SOUTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING (8-18KTS) THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. WINDS TURN WEST AND DECREASE UNDER 8 KTS THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WITH A PERIOD
OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO KITH,KELM
AND KBGM LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
MINOR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ES/JAB
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MJM/MWG
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