035
FXUS61 KBGM 131143
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
643 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A
WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. COLD CANADIAN AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY.
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY.
MILDER CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK, WITH RISING TEMPERATURES
AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW LATER IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN DIGGING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, STRENGTHENING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ADVECTING SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL NY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN COLD, AROUND -10 DEGREES C,
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP
TO AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NY, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MUCH COLDER AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING TO AROUND -18 DEGREES C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT THIS
FRIGID AIR MASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A PASSING TROUGH AXIS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE
WIND DIRECTION AND MODEL GUIDANCE, LAKE EFFECT BANDS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP OFF THE FINGER LAKES. OVERALL, LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO ON MONDAY,
WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE WITH
THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM APPEARS LIMITED OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT
REGIONS, HOWEVER, AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
REMAINS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
THOUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NY. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE BROADER PATTERN BEGINS TO
TRANSITION AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.THIS SHIFT WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WITH DAY TIME TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE FREEZING AND
NIGHTTIME LOWS FALLING BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE VARIABLE.AT THIS
TIME, THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 40S. THIS WARMTH WILL BE SHORT
LIVED, AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE INITIAL PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING RAIN SHOWERS, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS TO REMAIN
ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FROM
NEAR ITH, NORTH TO SYR AND RME...LIKELY STARTING AROUND 14Z OR
15Z THIS MORNING. ITH WILL BE RIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, SO CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS IS LOWER
HERE. ADDED IN A TEMPO MVFR RESTRICTION HERE FROM 14-18Z TODAY
TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. SYR AND RME ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SOME
STEADIER LIGHT SNOW, WITH IFR RESTRICTIONS (VSBYS) BETWEEN ABOUT
14-18Z OR 19Z TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED
TO SLIDE OFF AND EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THESE TWO TAF SITES
BETWEEN 19-22Z THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME, A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR RME AND SYR (MODERATE CONFIDENCE).
FURTHER SOUTH, ELM AND BGM ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR CIGS MUCH
OF THE DAY TODAY, STARTING AT 15Z, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT
BGM. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED, OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF FLURRIES OR A
STRAY SNOW SHOWERS, AS THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS NORTH OF
THESE TWO SOUTHERN TIER OF NY TERMINALS.
THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW THEN MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, RIGHT
AROUND 01Z THIS EVENING, QUICKLY OVERSPREADING AVP AND BGM. AS
THE LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN, IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THESE
TWO TERMINALS; MAINLY FROM 01-06Z, AND IT COULD LINGER LONGER
AT AVP. FURTHER NORTHWEST, ELM IS EXPECTED TO ALSO SEE LIGHT
SNOW ARRIVE AROUND 01Z SUNDAY, WITH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SHOW
LOWER END MVFR VSBYS HERE. ITH WILL HAVE MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AND EVEN TEMPO IFR BETWEEN ABOUT 02-06Z SUNDAY. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR FROM NW TO SE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AS THE SNOW EXITS THE AREA.
EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING, TURNING SOUTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING (8-18KTS) THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. WINDS TURN WEST AND DECREASE UNDER 8 KTS THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WITH A PERIOD
OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHEST COVERAGE SHIFTS TO KITH,KELM
AND KBGM LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY... MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
MINOR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MJM
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