600
FXUS61 KBGM 140024
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
724 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO THE CENTRAL
NY. COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DROPS OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY EVENING WITH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SNOW SHOWERS. WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASING ON THURSDAY WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND EXIT THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF DEEP
LAYER LIFT EXTENDING INTO NE PA AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
THE SOUTHERN TIER. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH IS
TILTING A LITTLE MORE NEUTRAL AND NICE JET STREAK WILL BE
POSITIONED AROUND OR JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE POCONOS REGION
WHICH IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THIS JET
STREAK, WHICH WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL ASCENT THAN WITH JUST THE
SHORTWAVE AND FRONT ITSELF. THUS, THE STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL HELP EXTEND THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FURTHER NORTHWARD, SO
QPF AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN BUMPED SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE. THIS
BRINGS SNOWFALL TOTALS CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
POCONOS, BUT WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD AVERAGE
1-2 INCHES WITH POSSIBLY ONLY A FEW LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO 3"
POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD FAIRLY WEAK OMEGA THROUGH THE DGZ, SO DECIDED TO BUMP
DOWN SNOW RATIO AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST, THIS IS WHY THE
INCREASE IN QPF DID NOT PUSH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ADVISORY
THRESHOLD.
BEING THIS EVENT IS OVER THE WEEKEND, IT WAS DECIDED TO NOT
ISSUE AN ADVISORY BECAUSE AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW 3
INCHES, AND ALSO BECAUSE THE IMPACTS WILL BE LESS DUE TO IT NOT
BEING A WEEK DAY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE HOLD BEHIND THE EXITING
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPS UNDER THE
NW FLOW REGION. SEVERAL INCHES IN ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FINGER
LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME
IT DOESN'T APPEAR THERE WILL BE ORGANIZATION OF ANY PARTICULAR
BAND OF SNOW AND THESE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE, SO LIKELY NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED.
FINALLY, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE COLDER
THAN WHAT NBM WAS ADVERTISING, SO BLENDED IN SOME OF THE NBM
25TH PERCENTILE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW ZERO IN SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WITH WINDS STILL GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT, IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. AT THIS TIME,
CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF APPARENT TEMPERATURE BELOW THE
ADVISORY THRESHOLD IS UNCERTAIN, AND AFTER DISCUSSING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, IT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW AND WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS
WITH THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO ON MONDAY AND INTO WESTERN NY
LATE IN THE DAY, WITH MORE LIGHT SNOW LIKELY DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WITH THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPEARS LIMITED OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT REGIONS, HOWEVER, AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION ON TUESDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL WITH A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. THIS
SHIFT WILL SUPPORT RELIEF FROM THE COLD WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THURSDAY IS LOOKING VERY WARM OUT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. WITH THE WARM AIR IN PLACE, THE INITIAL PHASE OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY EVEN
SOME GUSTY SHOWERS AS LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR 70 KNOTS AT 850 MB.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW BY
FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER THE OVERALL PATTERN APPEARS
TO REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. THE STEADIER
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FROM ITH ON SOUTH, BUT LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS CAN PUSH UP INTO SYR AND RME THIS EVENING. IFR/LIFR
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE STEADY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY ABOUT 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING, BUT AS WINDS SHIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY, LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CNY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME
HIGH RES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AROUND RME AND SYR IF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED BEFORE BECOMING
MORE CELLULAR IN NATURE AND SHIFTING SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS WITH A
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND
MINOR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ES/MPK
NEAR TERM...ES/MPK
SHORT TERM...ES/MPK
LONG TERM...ES/MPK
AVIATION...DK/MPK
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