282
FXUS61 KBGM 221735
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1235 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR IS DISSIPATING
AND THEREFORE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ONONDAGA COUNTY
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THERE IS ALSO INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A ROUND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW TONIGHT, CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE AREA
TONIGHT, CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX ON TUESDAY.
2) ADDITIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK; A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTS, OR
ALL SNOW IF ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INTO NY AND PA.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH PLENTY OF
ANTECEDENT COLD AIR IN PLACE, PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ENTIRELY SNOW. HOWEVER, BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE MOVING IN, WHICH WOULD
LIKELY CHANGE THE SNOW TO A WINTRY MIX OF OF SNOW, SLEET, AND
FREEZING RAIN, AND EVENTUALLY ALL RAIN IN THE VALLEYS.
THE TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION RESULTS IN A TRICKY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL OF COURSE BE TONIGHT WITH THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION
LIKELY REMAINING ALL SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
1-3 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF CENTRAL NY. WITH THERE BEING DECENT OMEGA
THROUGH THE DGZ AND INDICATIONS THERE COULD BE A MID-LEVEL FGEN
BAND BISECTING CENTRAL NY, THERE IS CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE SOME SNOW AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ONCE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A WINTRY MIX TUESDAY MORNING,
WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION, OVERALL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED SINCE THIS LIGHT ACCUMULATION
WOULD BE ON TOP OF FRESH SNOW. EVENTUALLY, TEMPERATURES WARM
ENOUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S)
TO HAVE ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.
AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR SURROUNDING WFOS, IT WAS DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY DECISIONS UNTIL THE DAY
SHIFT DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING IF
CRITERIA WILL EVEN BE REACHED AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTRY
MIX IMPACTS (OR IF THE WINTRY MIX WILL EVEN OCCUR LONG ENOUGH TO
CAUSE PROBLEMS).
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LOOKS TO BE
BLOCKED WITH 3 LARGE RIDGES IN WESTERN ALASKA, THE CENTRAL U.S.,
AND NORTHERN EUROPE. THIS MEANS THAT WE WILL BE STUCK ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A TROUGH OFF OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE LEADING TO PLENTY OF CHANCES OF CLIPPERS TO DRIVE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
WARM AIR IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AS WELL AS ACCESS TO COLD AIR
IN EASTERN CANADA, THE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR OVERRUNNING MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW, OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THINGS SIMPLE
WITH JUST RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, BUT ADDITIONAL P-TYPES COULD BE
INTRODUCED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COLDER TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK TRENDING FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND A HIGH TO THE NORTH SUPPLYING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION.
SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE, TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WOULD BE
MUCH COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
FOR HIGHS, RATHER THAN UPPER 30S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES FOR HIGHS.
IN FACT, THE CHANGE FROM THE 01Z NBM TO THE 07Z NBM SHOWS THIS
EXACT DRASTIC DIFFERENCE. THIS WOULD ALSO MEAN SNOWIER SCENARIO
FOR FRIDAY, RATHER THAN A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN SCENARIO. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED WITH OUR UPCOMING FORECAST
PACKAGES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AFTER 06Z FOR MOST
SITES AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND
PERIODS OF FUEL ALT BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN 10-12Z AND LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND IFR AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OCCASIONAL IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON. RESTRICTIONS
MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJG/BJG
AVIATION...ES/JTC
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