558
FXUS61 KBGM 222339
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL, WITH
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THIS POTENTIAL. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING MUCH COLDER
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE TRACK. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS WINTER
WEATHER SYSTEM AS MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE SUITES TRY TO
HONE IN ON THE THERMAL PROFILES, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
ULTIMATE LOW TRACK. WITH THAT SAID, PROBABILITIES FOR ANOTHER
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR WINTRY MIX EVENT ARE INCREASING OVER OUR
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA IN THIS TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE AREA
TONIGHT, CHANGING TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR DRIZZLE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
2) QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS THE AREA.
3) ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW
AND/OR A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT; THE
PATTERN IS TRENDING MORE FAVORABLE MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTS,
OR ALL SNOW IF ENOUGH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING A WARM FRONT INTO NY AND PA.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TONIGHT AND WITH PLENTY OF
ANTECEDENT COLD AIR IN PLACE, PRECIPITATION TYPE TONIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE ENTIRELY SNOW. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING, STARTING TO MIX BY LATE MORNING OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER ZONE.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE MOVING
IN, WHICH WOULD LIKELY CHANGE THE STEADY SNOW TO A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX OF OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND EVENTUALLY ALL
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE VALLEYS BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS TRENDING LATER, BUT STILL
RESULTS IN A TRICKY SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OF COURSE BE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SNOW BEING THE PREDOMINATE PTYPE FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS CENTRAL NY & CATSKILLS. WITH
THERE BEING DECENT OMEGA THROUGH THE DGZ AND INDICATIONS THERE
COULD BE A MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND BISECTING CENTRAL NY, THERE IS
CERTAINLY A POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE SOME SNOW
AMOUNTS A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. LOWER AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE LAKE
ONTARIO PLAIN (SYRACUSE), WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND MOHAWK
VALLEY, WHERE RAIN COULD MIX SLIGHTLY EARLIER ON TUESDAY AND
OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOWER.
ONCE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, OVERALL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED SINCE THIS LIGHT ACCUMULATION WOULD BE ON TOP OF FRESH
SNOW. EVENTUALLY, TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON (HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S) TO HAVE ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL RUN UNTIL 4 PM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF NE PA AND MOST OF CENTRAL NY.
A LIMITED LAKE ENHANCED RESPONSE DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT AS 850
MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -10C, WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA (S. CAYUGA, ONONDAGA, MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES); THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY
FOR THESE AREAS. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW OR FLURRIES COULD
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUALLY
DECREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A COOL START IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVER A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED; THIS COULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED BLOWING/DRIFTING
FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW IN THE RURAL, OPEN EXPOSED AREAS.
SEASONABLY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY OR EVEN PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE; BUT MORE THAN LIKELY IT REMAINS DRY. IT WARMS
UP TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MID-30S TO
LOWER 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE LOOKS TO BE
BLOCKED WITH 3 LARGE RIDGES IN WESTERN ALASKA, THE CENTRAL U.S.,
AND NORTHERN EUROPE. THIS MEANS THAT WE WILL BE STUCK ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A TROUGH OFF OF THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE CENTRAL
U.S. RIDGE LEADING TO PLENTY OF CHANCES OF CLIPPERS TO DRIVE
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AS WELL AS ACCESS TO
COLD AIR IN EASTERN CANADA, THE SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR OVERRUNNING
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COLDER TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK TRENDING
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND A HIGH TO THE NORTH SUPPLYING COLDER
AIR TO THE REGION. CONSIDERING THIS TREND IS NOW CONTINUING,
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED BE MUCH COLDER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, WITH UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR HIGHS. IN
FACT, THE 13Z NBM CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS DRASTIC FORECAST
CHANGE. THIS WOULD ALSO MEAN SNOWIER SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY, RATHER
THAN A WINTRY MIX TO RAIN SCENARIO.THE PROBABILITY FOR 3 INCHES
OR MORE OF SNOW IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA IN THIS TIME
PERIOD, WITH THE 13Z NBM NOW SHOWING 40-50% CHANCE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-81, WITH 15-35% WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED WITH OUR UPCOMING FORECAST PACKAGES.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
***IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW***
TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT,
BUT RESTRICTIONS WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AFTER 06Z FOR MOST SITES AS
A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND
PERIODS OF FUEL ALT BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. SNOW WILL PICK UP IN
INTENSITY TUESDAY MORNING AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE AND IFR
OR WORSE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING IN
SNOW. SNOW WILL LIGHTEN UP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NE PA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. SYR WILL
SEE WARMER AIR PUSH IN FROM THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. AS WARMER AIR PUSHES IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ALL SITES WILL SEE AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY. RME SHOULD HANG ONTO THE SNOW THE LONGEST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND WITH A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR FZRA OR DRIZZLE LATE
IN AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING FOR A CHANGEOVER, DECIDED TO JUST LEAVE THE WEATHER TYPE
AS SNOW FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER WITH FOG AND
DRIZZLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR
CLOUDS IN THE MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN.
THURSDAY...A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ALONG
WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT SOME POINT THIS PERIOD, BUT
TIMING IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-017-018-036-037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ023>025-044>046-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...BJG/MJM
AVIATION...ES/MPK
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