441
FXUS61 KBGM 240548
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE REGION AND REMAINING WINTER
ADVISORIES AND MOST WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
ALTHOUGH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE LAKE EFFECT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIGHTER TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN EXPECTED.
THEREFORE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR CAYUGA, ONONDAGA,
MADISON AND S. ONEIDA COUNTY WERE CANCELED. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVER N. ONEIDA WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 4
INCHES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NY. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN
MOHAWK REGION NY AND POCONO MOUNTAIN REGION PA.
2) POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING,
OTHERWISE MOSTLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS
DAY.
3) CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM
TO PRODUCE SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT LAKE ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW
AND COLDER AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB
WILL FALL -6 TO -10 EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE QUITE MARGINAL, SO COULD HAVE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES COOL AND SNOW SETTLES IN. DUE TO THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND SUB ADVISORY
FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NY WHERE A MORE ORGANIZED WAVE MOVES IN. THIS WILL
BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. AS THIS IS TEMPERATURE DEPENDENT, THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND POCONOS REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE AS WINDS ARE BORDERLINE, ALTHOUGH PIKE COUNTY COULD SEE
SOME DOWN SLOPING AND THIS MAY BE RECONSIDERED LATER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WILL START OFF IN
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AND ONLY WARM A FEW DEGREES DURING THE DAY.
OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL BE RELATIVELY AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR RANGING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY IN THE MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION, MAYBE A DUSTING.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THIS SETUP
FAVORABLE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. SYSTEM INITIALLY STARTS AS SNOW
AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING, BUT
WARMER AIR STARTS TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THIS IS WHERE WE WILL START TO SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
PA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW COLD
AIR FILTERING BACK IN FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK
TO SNOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
GETTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 4 INCHES. THIS IS MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION WHERE COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD. AREAS TO THE EAST WILL ONLY SEE ABOUT A 20%
CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 4 INCHES AT THIS TIME WITH WARMER
AIR IN PLACE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR TO FUEL
ALTERNATE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE
BRIEF IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING, THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING IFR RESTRICTIONS IS DECREASING
AND THEREFORE THIS WAS REMOVED FROM THE TAFS WITH THE 06Z
ISSUANCE.
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON (OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25KTS), BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR
KELM AND KAVP.
SUNDAY...WINTRY MIX TO RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ES
AVIATION...BJG
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