657
FXUS61 KBGM 240700
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE STEADY SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE UPCOMING IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN, FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- 2. BUSY WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY, WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES MAKING THIS A SETUP
FAVORABLE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. SYSTEM INITIALLY STARTS AS
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING, BUT
WARMER AIR STARTS TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES IN JUST WEST OF THE AREA,
WARM AIR GETS ADVECTED, INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN.
PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF GETTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 4
INCHES, PRIMARILY FOR NE PA, WHERE COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD. AS FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL, PROBABILISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS AROUND 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE ICE
ACCUMULATION FRIDAY NIGHT, FOR AREAS IN WEST SOUTHERN TIER AND
NE PA WEST OF SCRANTON. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE SHOWS A
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE AREA, WHERE A MATURE, STACKED LOW
SHOWS TO DEVELOP. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM A FRONT ON
SUNDAY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION COULD START
AS RAIN AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. AS THE MAIN CENTER LOW AND
COLD FRONT COMES IN, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, MAINLY WITH
TIMING, WHERE A FEW HOUR DIFFERENCE IN PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEMCOULD MEAN DIFFERENT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE
TRANSITION.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR TO FUEL
ALTERNATE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE
BRIEF IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING, THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING IFR RESTRICTIONS IS DECREASING
AND THEREFORE THIS WAS REMOVED FROM THE TAFS WITH THE 06Z
ISSUANCE.
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON (OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25KTS), BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASE DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR
KELM AND KAVP.
SUNDAY...WINTRY MIX TO RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...BJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page