143
FXUS61 KBGM 241746
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1246 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 35-45MPH AT TIMES. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST WIND GUSTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THE LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE UPCOMING POTENTIAL WINTRY WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO MIX IN, FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY, WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURES MAKING THIS A SETUP
FAVORABLE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. SYSTEM INITIALLY STARTS AS
SNOW AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THE MORNING, BUT
WARMER AIR STARTS TO CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES IN JUST WEST OF THE AREA,
WARM AIR GETS ADVECTED, INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN.
PROBABILISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF GETTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 4
INCHES, PRIMARILY FOR NE PA, WHERE COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD. AS FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL, PROBABILISTIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS AROUND 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE ICE
ACCUMULATION FRIDAY NIGHT, FOR AREAS IN WEST SOUTHERN TIER AND
NE PA WEST OF SCRANTON. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE SHOWS A
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE AREA, WHERE A MATURE, STACKED LOW
SHOWS TO DEVELOP. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM A FRONT ON
SUNDAY EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION COULD START
AS RAIN AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION. AS THE MAIN CENTER LOW AND
COLD FRONT COMES IN, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, MAINLY WITH
TIMING, WHERE A FEW HOUR DIFFERENCE IN PROGRESSION OF THIS
SYSTEM COULD MEAN DIFFERENT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE
TRANSITION.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LAKE INDUCED STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER LONGER THAN MODELED SO
MVFR CIGS WERE EXTENDED PAST 0Z AT SYR AND RME. ITH AND BGM ARE
MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE CLOUDS TO THE WEST ARE STARTING TO BREAK
UP. ELM AND AVP ARE ALREADY OUTSIDE OF THE DECK SO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN TOMORROW WITH MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RIGHT NOW NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT TOMORROW BUT THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE AT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT RME, ITH, AND BGM
BRIEFLY AROUND 15Z TO 18Z.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. A WINTRY MIX MAY OCCUR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR
KELM AND KAVP.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WINTRY MIX TO RAIN LIKELY WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJG/KL
AVIATION...AJG/BJG
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