089
FXUS61 KBGM 250016
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
716 PM EST WED DEC 24 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AND FREEZING RAIN IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER OF NY AND THE WYOMING
VALLEY REGION OF NORTHEAST PA. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR A
COMBINATION OF SNOW, SLEET AND ICE EXISTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1)GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY, VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
2) A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW, SOME HEAVY AT TIMES AND
A WINTRY MIX (FOR PARTS OF THE AREA) FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
3) A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
RAIN AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
4) A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW, BLUSTERY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM POSSIBLE
AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1..
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, WHICH COULD INITIATE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THE SPOTTY PRECIP LATE TONIGHT COULD
ALSO BE IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH MIDDAY ON
CHRISTMAS. THIS FRONT COULD ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH IT, AND BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE MID-10S TO MID-20S FOR LOWS, THEN WARMING UP INTO THE MID-
30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SKIES PARTIALLY CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW ZERO NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-
10S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A
QUICK HITTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WINTER STORM FOR OUR AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE ECS, GEFS AND CMC ENS
IS SHOWING A STRIPE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW, ORIENTED NW TO SE RIGHT
THROUGH THE CORE OF OUR CWA. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RATHER NARROW SNOW BAND, WITH THE CMC ENS AND GEFS
BEING SLIGHT NORTH OF THE ECS STILL. THE LATEST 19Z NBM IS FOLLOWING
CLOSELY IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF THE PREVIOUS 13Z NBM RUN; SHOWING THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR 6" OR MORE OF SNOW ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
NYC TO BGM (40-60%) WITH A MUCH BROADER FOOTPRINT OF ELEVATED 4" OR
MORE PROBABILITIES SPREADING OUT OVER MOST OF NE PA (EXCEPT LUZERNE),
THE TWIN TIERS, SUSQUEHANNA REGION AND EAST TO DELAWARE
COUNTY...THIS IS WHERE 40-80% PROBABILITIES FOR 4" OR MORE OF SNOW
EXISTS ON THE 19Z NBM. THE 50TH PERCENTILE 19Z NBM IS VERY CLOSE TO
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST (WHICH HEAVILY INCORPORATED WPC QPF)AND HAS A
STRIPE OF 6-9" OF SNOW EXTENDING ACROSS SULLIVAN COUNTY, PIKE,
WAYNE, SUSQUEHANNA, DELAWARE, BROOME, TIOGA, CORTLAND AND CHENANGO
COUNTIES....IF ANYTHING THE 19Z NBM SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
NORTH AND EAST WITH THE AXIS OF THESE POSSIBLE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS.
FURTHER WEST/SOUTH THE SNOW MAY END UP MIXING WITH SLEET AND PERHAPS
FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER IN THE 750-800MB RANGE
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. JUST NORTHEAST OF WHERE THIS ABOVE
FREEZING LAYER ALOFT PUSHES WITH LIKELY BE WHERE THE HIGHER END SNOW
TOTALS FROM THIS EVENT SET UP.
THERE REMAINS QUITE THE SPREAD IN THE 25-75TH PERCENTILE, FOR
EXAMPLE BETWEEN ABOUT 3-8 INCHES AT BINGHAMTON, 2-7 INCHES AT ELMIRA
AND SCRANTON, 4-10 INCHES AT MONTICELLO AND 3-7 INCHES AT ITHACA.
ALONG THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PROBABILITIES, TOTALS AND CONFIDENCE THE
WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL. FURTHER
WEST AND SOUTH, THE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW, SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN. THERE DOES EXIST THE
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IF THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT IS THICK ENOUGH, OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF STEUBEN,
BRADFORD AND LUZERNE COUNTIES. THE AXIS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW
WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 700-850MB LAYER, NOTED BY THE GFS CROSS-SECTION
OVER BGM AT 7 PM EST FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA, FROM NEAR CHICAGO TO PITTSBURGH, THEN OFF THE DELMARVA
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HOWEVER SHOWING A NEGATIVELY
TILTED 700MB TROUGH AND EVEN WEAKLY CLOSED LOW SKIRTING THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD CAUSE LOCAL ENHANCEMENT AND
BETTER MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TWIN TIERS,
CATSKILLS AND POCONOS OF NE PA.
TIMING FOR THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE THE STEADY SNOW QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MIXED PRECIP COULD ARRIVE FOR OUR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING
ELSEWHERE WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW TAPERS OFF AND BECOMES
LIGHTER, WHILE LINGERING ALONG THE 700MB TROUGH AXIS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS EVENT WILL BE COLD. STARTING OFF IN THE 10S
TO MID-20S FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY, BUT PERHAPS
RISING A FEW DEGREES FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EVERYWHERE
REMAINS WELL BELOW FREEZING FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH WHERE IT REMAINS ALL SNOW, LIKELY
BETWEEN ABOUT 10-15:1. THE SNOW WILL END UP BEING WEIGHED DOWN, AND
MUCH HEAVIER/WETTER TO MOVE AROUND WHERE MIXING OCCURS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS EVENT, BETWEEN 5 TO 15 MPH FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. SOME MINOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS POSSIBLE OF THE
DRY, POWDERY SNOW, BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS
AND IF/WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON POST HOLIDAY
TRAVEL, SO BE SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR CRITICAL UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE LINGERING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, BUT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REACH +5 TO +8C AT 850MB. THIS
CAN SET THE STAGE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-81, INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON JUST HOW MUCH, IF ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL
OCCUR...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT THERMAL PROFILES NEAR THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE REGION, AS INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKE HOLD OUT AHEAD THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, LIKELY MONDAY MORNING FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT FALL TO -12C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT AND JUST HOW FAST TEMPERATURES FALL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CHANGES TO WRAP AROUND AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY OR AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY, MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH STRONG GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25-
40 MPH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE SETUP LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW (POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT) MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. POPS WHERE RAISED AND BLOWING SNOW WAS ADDED INTO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AS USUAL, EXACT FLOW AND THEREFORE
LAKE EFFECT BAND POSITION AND INLAND EXTENT ARE NOT CERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT IN TIME. OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN LAKE EFFECT, IT WILL BE VERY COLD
AND BLUSTERY EARLY TO MID WEEK WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
GETTING DOWN NEAR -20C TUESDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO KEEP TABS ON
JUST HOLD COLD IT WILL BE AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS COULD BE A
FACTOR AT TIMES. WATCHING ANOTHER FAST MOVING CLIPPER OUT IN THE
EXTENDED THAT WILL BE APPROACHING BY NEXT WEDNESDAY, NO DETAILS
KNOWN ON THIS SYSTEM YET...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE MORE SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR LAKE EFFECT FOR THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. AS WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW PICKS UP JUST OFF THE SURFACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DRY
COLD FRONT, MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE FIGURED
FOR BGM-ELM-AVP FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAWN; CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
OR MAGNITUDE NEGLIGIBLE FARTHER NORTH. THEN, DRY FRONT PASSES
DURING LATER MORNING-MIDDAY AND WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY
WHILE PICKING UP SOMEWHAT THROUGH AFTERNOON, WITH 15-20KT
GUSTS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR KSYR-KRME-KITH-KBGM. WHILE DEPTH OF MOISTURE DOES NOT
SUGGEST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
BRIEF PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE BEHIND THE FRONT IN LATE
MORNING-MIDDAY AT KBGM-KRME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MIDDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SNOW WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES FOR KELM-KAVP FRIDAY
NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EARLY MORNING...MOSTLY DRY
BUT PATCHY FLURRIES OR EVEN SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
WITH LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GUSTY
WINDS AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
NY TERMINALS AS LAKE EFFECT BECOMES DOMINANT.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ038-043-047.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ039-040-044-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ022>024.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ025-044-045-055>057-062.
DISCUSSION...MJM
AVIATION...MDP
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