732
FXUS61 KBGM 251955
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
255 PM EST THU DEC 25 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
REGIONS OF THE CATSKILLS, THE REST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR CNY WITH A REDUCTION OF SNOW AMOUNTS IN
THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NEPA WITH INCREASED
CONFIDENCE THAT SOME SLEET WILL MIX IN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FRIDAY MID DAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
2) GREAT LAKES LOW BRINGS THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO CHANGING TO RAIN MONDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS.
3) COLD WEATHER RETURNS LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FAIRLY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
LEAD TO GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER
SNOW. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WHERE THIS
HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WILL SET UP. THIS MORNINGS MODEL RUNS WITH
THE HRRR ESPECIALLY LOOK TO BE WAY TO BULLISH ON SNOWFALL ACROSS
NEPA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VERTICAL
CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE WARM FRONT SHOW A 700 MB WARM LAYER.
THE HRRR HAS A LACK OF VERTICAL LAYERS SO LIKELY THE 700 MB WARM
LAYER IS UNDERDONE WHILE IN THE NAM, THE WARM NOSE IS LIKELY
BEING OVERDONE. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN THE FGEN BAND MAY
BE ABLE TO KEEP THE LAYER BELOW FREEZING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
OF THE WARM NOSE. ANOTHER ISSUE WITH THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO
ITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS HOW HIGH THE DGZ IS. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
THAT THE LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ IS MAXIMIZED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF IS SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE SNOW BAND ENDS UP BEING ABOUT 20 TO 30 MILES NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SLEET RATHER THAN JUST NORTH OF THE MIX
LINE. WARNING CRITERIA SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THIS BAND AND
WITH HOW NARROW IT IS, GUESSING WHERE IT WILL BE TO ISSUE
WARNINGS WILL BE TOUGH SO WARNINGS ACROSS CNY, AND PERHAPS MORE
OF NEPA IF THE BAND ENDS UP BEING WELL SOUTH, MAY BE ISSUED WITH
SHORT NOTICE.
SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH WAS INCREASED, WITH THE
COUPLED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AND THE LIFT EXIT REGION OF TWO
JET MAXES WITH LIFT BEING FAIRLY BROAD. FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER AND WESTERN NEPA, WARM AIR LOOKS TO WIN OUT WITH SLEET
MIXING IN SO THE TIME OF ALL SNOW MAY ONLY BE A FEW HOURS BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO SLEET. FREEZING RAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO
DWINDLE AS THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR BELOW THE WARM LAYER IS DEEP
AND ANYTHING THAT MELTS WILL REFREEZE. HOW FAR NORTH THIS MIXED
LAYER WILL GET IS CRITICAL FOR WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS.
CURRENT SNOW MAP DOES NOT HAVE AS SHARP OF A GRADIENT AS THERE
WILL LIKELY BE AND AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, WE WILL BE
ABLE TO REFINE WHERE THAT MIXING LINE MAY GET TO. RIGHT NOW,
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IS IN THE
CATSKILLS WHERE THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH THE
HELP OF TERRAIN, SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE NEAR AND ABOVE WARNING
CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH NY AND PA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING WELL PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION
ONSET LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIMING,
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT DEEPER, SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
CATSKILLS UP INTO THE TUG HILL MAY HOLD ON TO BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WAS KEPT IN THE GRIDS FOR
SE FACING VALLEYS IN THE CATSKILLS AS THOSE VALLEYS WILL BE
SHELTERED THE BEST AND MAINTAIN FREEZING TEMPERATURES LONGER
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 10C, IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MAINTAIN ANY BELOW FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION BUT AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, A STABLE LAYER
BELOW THE WINDS WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
BRINGING A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE AND A BRIEF TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE COLDER, DRIER AIR BRINGS AN END OF THE
PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS. 850 MB WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW GET UP OVER 50 KNOTS SO THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. A STACKED LOW FORMS SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY WHICH
IS CLIMATOLOGY A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR LONG LIVED LAKE EFFECT
EVENTS. 850 MB WINDS ARE MOSTLY WESTERLY AND MEAN WINDS IN
ENSEMBLES HINT AT A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION, WHILE MEAN
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW -10C. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
REALLY FIGURE OUT BAND ORGANIZATION OR ORIENTATION BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LAKE RELATED MOISTURE AND COLD UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS FOR OUR NY
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. KAVP WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN VFR BEHIND FRONT.
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS THIS EVENING AS MVFR CEILINGS IN NY
AND VFR BKN CLOUDS AT KAVP WILL FADE AWAY TO HIGHER CLOUDS AND
ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE NEXT WINTER STORM
MOVES INTO THE REGION. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
VFR EXCEPT AT KELM WHERE LIGHT SNOW BEGINS AROUND 16Z SO HAVE
MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW. REST OF TERMINALS VFR TO 18Z. THE SNOW AND
SIGNIFICANT IFR RESTRICTIONS DON'T ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS WELL INTO THE 20S THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST, THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 MPH FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING...SNOW WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT TIMES FOR KELM-KAVP FRIDAY
NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EARLY MORNING...MOSTLY DRY,
BUT PATCHY FLURRIES OR EVEN SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE
WITH LINGERING CEILING RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GUSTY WINDS
AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS AS LAKE EFFECT BECOMES DOMINANT.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ039.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ038-043-044-047.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-055-056.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...DJN
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