564
FXUS61 KBGM 260637
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
137 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANSION OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY.
NEW GUIDANCE REFLECTS AN INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY
NORTH-AND-WESTWARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW AND SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
2) GREAT LAKES LOW BRINGS THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT PRIOR TO CHANGING TO RAIN MONDAY WITH
GUSTY WINDS.
3) COLD WEATHER RETURNS LATE MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FAIRLY POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL, AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION OF SLEET AND A GLAZE OF ICE IN PORTIONS OF NE PA
AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WHERE THIS HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WILL SET UP, WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE NARROW IN NATURE. THOUGH, CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED FOR WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL EXPANDING NORTH-AND-
WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NY WITH NEWEST MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTING
BETTER AGREEMENT; AT LEAST WITH GENERAL AMOUNTS MEETING OR
EXCEEDING WARNING-LEVEL AMOUNTS. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE THE
TOP OUTLIER, WITH THE MAGNITUDE FAR EXCEEDING THE OUTCOMES OF
OTHER GUIDANCE. ON THE CONTRARY, THE NAM RUNS WARM AT THE 700MB
LEVEL, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM A
MORE PROMINENT WARM NOSE (AND EFFECTIVELY MORE MIXED
PRECIPITATION). AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THIS
KEY MESSAGE: THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION IN THE FGEN BAND MAY BE
ABLE TO KEEP THE LAYER BELOW FREEZING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE WARM NOSE. ANOTHER ISSUE WITH THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO ITS
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS HOW HIGH THE DGZ IS. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
THAT THE LIFT THROUGH THE DGZ IS MAXIMIZED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN WHERE THE HIGHEST QPF IS SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THE SNOW BAND ENDS UP BEING ABOUT 20 TO 30 MILES NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SLEET RATHER THAN JUST NORTH OF THE MIX
LINE. TO ACCOMMODATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MEETING WARNING-LEVEL
SNOWFALL, WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NY. GIVEN THE PROBABILITY THAT A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
OCCURS, WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL MAY NOT BEEN SEEN EVERYWHERE IN A
COUNTY UNDER A WARNING.
FOR THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND WESTERN NE PA, WARM AIR WILL
PUSH IN WITH SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN, SO THE
TIME OF PRECIPITATION BEING PREDOMINANTLY SNOWFALL MAY ONLY BE
A FEW HOURS BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SLEET, AND POSSIBLY A MIX IN
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. ADDITIONALLY, HOW FAR NORTH THIS MIXED
LAYER WILL GET IS CRITICAL FOR WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS,
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WHERE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE IS
PRIMARILY EAST OF I-81, WHERE THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND WITH THE HELP OF TERRAIN, SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE NEAR AND
ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH NY AND PA. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING WELL PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION
ONSET LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIMING,
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT DEEPER, SHELTERED VALLEYS IN THE
CATSKILLS UP INTO THE TUG HILL MAY HOLD ON TO BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WAS KEPT IN THE GRIDS FOR
SE FACING VALLEYS IN THE CATSKILLS AS THOSE VALLEYS WILL BE
SHELTERED THE BEST AND MAINTAIN FREEZING TEMPERATURES LONGER
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH 850 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 10C, IT WILL BE TOUGH TO MAINTAIN ANY BELOW FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.
WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WITH THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION BUT AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, A STABLE LAYER
BELOW THE WINDS WILL PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
BRINGING A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURE AND A BRIEF TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW BEFORE COLDER, DRIER AIR BRINGS AN END OF THE
PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREAS. 850 MB WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW GET UP OVER 50 KNOTS SO THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EFFICIENT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. A STACKED LOW FORMS SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY WHICH
IS CLIMATOLOGY A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR LONG LIVED LAKE EFFECT
EVENTS. 850 MB WINDS ARE MOSTLY WESTERLY AND MEAN WINDS IN
ENSEMBLES HINT AT A MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION, WHILE MEAN
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR BELOW -10C. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
REALLY FIGURE OUT BAND ORGANIZATION OR ORIENTATION BUT SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE TIME
BEING; AT LEAST THROUGH THIS MORNING AND LIKELY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. AFTER 17Z OR SO, LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM
WEST TO EAST, WHICH WILL START TO BRING RESTRICTIONS; STARTING
OUT AS MVFR, BUT BECOMING IFR-OR-WORSE BY THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. +SN (1/4SM VISBY) WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL. KELM
AND KAVP WILL SEE SOME SNOW INITIALLY, AND COULD SEE IFR VISBYS
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY EVENING, THEN SOME SLEET IS LIKELY
TO MIX IN BY THE EVENING.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE LATE
EVENING AS THE SNOW STARTS TO TAPER OFF, BUT LINGERING MVFR TO
IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY MORNING...A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS, OTHERWISE LINGERING MVFR TO FUEL
ALTERNATE CEILINGS.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING MVFR
CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GUSTY WINDS
AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS AS LAKE EFFECT BECOMES DOMINANT.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE NY TERMINALS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ039.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ038-043-044-047.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-055.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NYZ022-024.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
SATURDAY FOR NYZ044>046-056-057-062.
DISCUSSION...KL
AVIATION...BJG
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