929
FXUS61 KBGM 261955
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
255 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FAST AND A SLIGHT SHIFT NORTH WITH
THE CLIPPER, WINDER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED NORTH.
FREEZING RAIN WAS ALSO INCREASED OVER SW STEUBEN COUNTY GIVEN
THAT THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED FREEZING RAIN JUST ACROSS
THE COUNTY BORDER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE SLIGHTLY REDUCED IN THE
SOUTHERN TIER WITH THE SPEED OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
SLIGHT NORTHERN SHIFT IN THE TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO CNY AND
CATSKILLS AND SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NEPA THROUGH TONIGHT.
2) DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN REGION WIDE MONDAY.
3) STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
4) LONG LIVED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DECENT SNOW BAND HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER
LAKES DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL PA WITH A FEW OBSERVATIONS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THIS BAND WILL LIFT NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES. THE
SLEET LINE IS ALSO PROGRESSING EAST FAST WITH LOWER CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT VALUES MARCHING EAST JUST BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND
OF SNOW. GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SOME MORNING SOUNDINGS,
THE WARM AIR IS STILL LOOKING PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND MAY PUSH
FARTHER NORTH. SNOW TOTALS FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER INTO THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WERE LOWERED AS SLEET LOOKS TO MIX IN A
LITTLE EARLIER. GIVEN THAT THE DGZ IS AT ALMOST 500 MB, THE
700-500 MB FGEN WAS USED TO HELP DEPICT WHERE THE MAIN SNOW BAND
WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY. MOST MODELS SHOW THE FGEN BAND
ORIENTATED FROM ROUGHLY EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN HUDSON VALLEY. CROSS SECTIONS IN THIS AREA ALSO SHOW A
SATURATED AIRMASS BELOW THE FGEN THAT COULD HELP CONTINUE TO
GROW DENDRITES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE NY THRUWAY
CORRIDOR WERE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS GIVEN THAT THERE COULD BE A
QUICK 8 INCHES UNDER THE SNOW BAND THIS EVENING.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES OVER THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT,
AND ONCE THE LOW IS EAST OF THE AREA, THE FGEN BAND WILL WEAKEN
OVER CNY WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE SNOW TONIGHT IS OUT OF THE REGION, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BUT TEMPERATURES
AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AT
PRECIPITATION ONSET IN EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE CATSKILLS AS
WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY TO NEAR 10C SO WITH RAIN HELPING BRING SOME OF THAT
WARMER AIR TO THE SURFACE, THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
OVER BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE WARM FRONT TRENDING SLOWER AS
IT MOVES THROUGH NY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS WITH
3/4 TO AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE
AND THE FRONT DOES BECOME STALLED, THERE COULD BE LOCAL WATER
ISSUES WITH RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT LATER IN THE DAY
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING BELOW FREEZING. WITH
THE LOW DEEPENING BELOW 980 MB AND 850 WINDS RISING UP TO 50
KNOTS, STRONG GUSTS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE NEAR DRY ADIABATIC. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE,
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN POTENTIALLY SEEING ISOLATED 50+ MPH GUSTS.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
DESPITE LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THE LOW OCCLUDES AND BECOMES STACKED JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON
BAY FOR MOST OF THIS NEXT WEEK. FLOW AROUND THE LOW, MAINTAINED
COLD AIR ADVECTION, AND POTENTIAL MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION WILL
LEAD TO PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO AT
LEAST SATURDAY. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW IF THE BAND OR BANDS
COULD IMPACT THE SAME AREAS OVER AND OVER AS SHORTWAVES WRAPPING
AROUND THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL CHANGE THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS. LAKE EFFECT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME
POINT THIS WEEK FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REPLACED BY IFR AND MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW FROM 18-20Z AS SNOW DEVELOPS AND
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A
CHALLENGE ESPECIALLY AT KELM, KITH, KBGM AND KAVP WHERE A NOSE
OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE COLD, SUB-FREEZING
AIR, AT THE SURFACE AND CAUSE SLEET TO MIX IN BETWEEN 20Z AND
01Z THIS EVENING. KSYR AND KRME TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ALL SNOW WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES REDUCING
VSBYS TO 1/2SM AT TIMES.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE LATE
EVENING AS THE SNOW STARTS TO TAPER OFF, BUT LINGERING MVFR TO
FUEL ALTERNATE CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT...AND MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...LINGERING MVFR
CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GUSTY WINDS
AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS AS LAKE EFFECT BECOMES DOMINANT.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE NY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY THE NY TERMINALS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS MAKING
IT SOUTH TO KAVP.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ040-048-
072.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ038-039-
043-044-047.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
036-037-044>046-056-057-062.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ015>017-
022>025-055.
DISCUSSION...AJG
AVIATION...BJG/BJT
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