072
FXUS61 KBGM 271809
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
109 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SLOWED THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER GOING FROM RAIN TO SNOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY STAYING WARMER IN THE
DAYTIME. OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DEEP LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN REGION WIDE MONDAY.
2) STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
3) LONG LIVED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, BUT TEMPERATURES
AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CATSKILLS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY TO NEAR 10C, DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE AREAS, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE
BACK TO RAIN. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
RATHER SLOW, AND IF TRENDS SHOW ANY MORE SLOWING OF THE FRONT,
THERE COULD BE LOCAL WATER ISSUES WITH RUNOFF FROM THE RAIN AND
SNOW MELT LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING BELOW FREEZING. WITH
THE LOW DEEPENING AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING, STRONG
WESTERLY GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
DESPITE LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE LOW MATURES AND BECOMES STACKED JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON
BAY FOR MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. FLOW AROUND THE LOW,
MAINTAINED COLD AIR ADVECTION, AND POTENTIAL MULTI-LAKE
CONNECTION WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM MONDAY
NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO KNOW IF THE
BAND, OR MULTIPLE BANDS, COULD IMPACT THE SAME AREAS OVER AND
OVER, AS SHORTWAVES WRAPPING AROUND THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL
CHANGE THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. LAKE EFFECT
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NYS THRUWAY CORRIDOR.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVERHEAD WITH
SCATTERED MVFR TO FUEL ALT LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT
BGM AND ELM THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN AT MOST SITES
BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY MORNING...VFR LIKELY
SUNDAY MIDDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN RAIN WITH RESTRICTIONS LIKELY
IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GUSTY WINDS
AS RAIN SHOWERS CHANGE BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY NY TERMINALS AS LAKE EFFECT BECOMES DOMINANT.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE NY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MAINLY THE NY TERMINALS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS MAKING
IT SOUTH TO KAVP.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ009-037-046.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR NYZ057-062.
DISCUSSION...AJG/KL
AVIATION...ES/MPK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page